'Gravity' is going to win and the rest of my Oscar predictions

Tonight is the big night. The Oscars. And for once it's actually shaping up to a be a very competitive race.

After a less than auspicious start, 2013 actually turned out to be a very good year for movies.

And there are actually three movies that are considered roughly equal odds for best picture. I can't remember the last time something like that has happened in that category.

Usually it's the acting races which present the most intrigue but with the exception of best supporting actress, the other major categories are all but foregone conclusions.

Dallas Buyers Club, a movie I enjoyed but found fairly conventional, is expected to take both male acting Oscars and Blue Jasmine's Cate Blanchett is a shoo-in for best actress.

As I prep for my girlfriend's now-annual Oscar party I will reveal my picks for my ballot's major categories, will a little of my own commentary to boot.

Best Actor

Matthew McConaughey is winning this award and it is the crowning achievement of his full-blown career revival.

The truth is that McConaughey had been terrific in a few past roles (Lone Star, Dazed and Confused, Killer Joe) over the years, but his mainstream romantic comedy work so obscured his talent that virtually no one ever took him seriously.

His infamous arrest when he was caught naked, high and playing the bongos in his apartment was the most indelible image of the guy. He had that Nicolas Cage -- is there a method to his madness? -- vibe. But oddly enough it was his role in an otherwise lesser Soderbergh film, Magic Mike, that started to prove there was some wily wit behind that "alright, alright" persona.

He is very good in Dallas Buyers Club, even though I couldn't help but feel like it was such an overtly "Oscar-baity" role. I am impressed by the weight-loss even though I sometimes think it's too gimmicky. I'd honestly rather see DiCaprio (because he was better) or Ejiofor (because he gave my favorite performance) win this but it's all wrapped up for McConaughey.

Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine

Best Actress

I like when there are those performances, like Heath Ledger's in The Dark Knight or Javier Bardem's in No Country for Old Men, where it's just so clearly the best performance of the year in a certain category that you kind of just know after you've seen the film that it's going to wind up winning every award, including the Oscar.

Cate Blanchett had that kind of performance with her lead role in Blue Jasmine (another very strong Woody Allen film in a period that is starting to rival his 80s work, if not his 70s work in terms of quality). It was a very risky performance that stayed with you after you left the theater. She got to play an incredible range of emotions and personalities and she is the most deserving.

I thought Sandra Bullock was very effective in Gravity, if she hadn't already won an Oscar for The Blind Side (Hollywood couldn't abide Bullock being a two-time Academy Award winner at this point) she might have had a shot.

I also will say that I was thrilled to see Amy Adams included because she may have actually given my favorite performance in American Hustle, and while I don't expect her to win I'm excited to see more people giving her credit for being one of the best actresses of her generation.

But Blanchett has this one in the bag.

Best Supporting Actor

I can't help it, I find Jared Leto to be disingenuous. I've never been bowled over by his acting talent and he seems more than a little smug to me. And yet he is the surest thing on Oscar night.

He had some nice, tender moments in Dallas Buyers Club, particularly the scene where his drag queen character tries to dress conservatively to wrangle funds from his disapproving father. But his performance (to me) won't be remembered as particularly groundbreaking years from now.

Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street

I think Bradley Cooper proved he will be a leading man with staying power by giving a very smart and disarmingly funny performance in American Hustle.

I am really hoping Captain Phillips' Barkhad Abdi doesn't just get typecast in villain roles going forward because I think he could surprise us with his range.

And Fassbender may had the most difficult role in the group, but his performance has -- just like 12 Years a Slave itself -- not been given the credit it deserves.

I know it'll never happen but I really wish Jonah Hill would win this award. I know a lot of audiences still don't take him seriously because of his Superbad past. But he's actually a fantastic actor and his performance in The Wolf of Wall Street was wilder, funnier and ultimately scarier than anything he has ever done before.

I think of all the performances in this category, Hill's the one that we will remember years from now.

Lupita Nyong'o in 12 Years a Slave

Best Supporting Actress

Speaking of memorable performances, both Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years a Slave) and Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle) gave two for the ages this past year.  This is precisely why they are considered neck-and-neck in the closet major race of the night besides best picture.

Momentum seems to keep shifting between these two incredibly appealing actresses and lately the tide seems to be turning in Lupita's favor. Lawrence just won last year, and the Academy Awards almost never grant back-to-back victories, especially when it comes to women.

Also Nyong'o, although she was an unknown and 12 Years a Slave was her first film, has managed to out-glam Lawrence on the awards show circuit, which really does make a difference with Oscar voters. Nyongo's media blitz seems to have worked to her benefit.

Furthermore, she gave arguably the most haunting and heartbreaking performance of the year.

Best Director

After a plethora of recent wins, the great Alfonso Cuaron appears to be the front-running filmmaker in this highly coveted category. Cuaron has been doing excellent work for years and finally broke through this year with his brilliantly tense sci-fi drama Gravity.

It's exciting to see work on a sci-fi film recognized, and Cuaron deserves so much credit for getting his vision made and for creating a blockbuster infused with real intelligence and emotion. David O'Russell (American Hustle) and Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave) are close behind him but Cuaron has won all the huge indicators, including the Director's Guild Award, which almost always predicts the eventual Oscar winner.

I really like Cuaron's work (Children of Men is one of the most underrated films of the past 10 years) and I'm excited to see the first Latino winner of best director but my heart breaks a little for McQueen, who's direction of 12 Years a Slave is certainly worthy of winning too. McQueen would be the first African-American filmmaker to win best director. Shockingly, he is only the third to ever be dominated for the prize.

But tonight will be Cuaron's night.

12 Years a Slave

Best Picture

For a long time I thought 12 Years a Slave was going to win this. It was going to be close but it seemed like this movie was just head and shoulders above its competition in terms of quality and impact. But since my initial predictions, so much has seemed to suggest that the film is fading.

First off, virtually every interview I read with an anonymous Oscar voter shows them giving every excuse they can to not vote for this film. The reasons given are usually bogus, but it's becoming clear that it's not as popular a choice as American Hustle or Gravity.

Secondly, almost every person I know socially who hasn't already seen the movie refuses to because they have presumed that it will be "too tough to watch" which can't bode well for its chances.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again, yes the film is disturbing and painful in parts but its also ultimately triumphant and inspirational. Unfortunately, a lot of people just won't give it a chance.

Entertainment Weekly's Jeff Labrecque recently wrote an excellent column diagnosing the resistance to 12 Years a Slave. He compared it to a movie its does have a lot in common with, Steven Spielberg's Schindler's List, which, ironically, won best picture exactly 20 years ago.

That was a historical epic viewed as the definitive portrayal of one our history's great horrors, and had a reputation for its unflinching realism and brutality. And yet that film made roughly $40 million more at the box office and won just about every award the year it came out.

What's the difference? Certainly not the reviews. Labrecque brilliantly points out that with Schindler's List, American audiences could watch it with some detachment because the cruelty was being perpetrated by German Nazis, not us. In fact, we know watching that film that America helped liberate these people so there isn't the same guilt that audiences could/would feel while watching 12 Years a Slave.

Also, because that film is seen through the eyes of Oskar Schindler (Liam Neeson), we are given a certain amount of safe distance from the emotional experience of enduring the Holocaust (which is a quibble a lot of people have with that film). Whereas in 12 Years a Slave we are forced to identify with a slave, albeit a kidnapped freeman, who is very much in the middle of all the unpleasantness. Unlike Schindler, we can not look away.

I think we also need to recognize that the Academy's voting body is still woefully under-representative of the American public. It's overwhelmingly older, white and male.

This is not a population that is well-known for its racial sensitivity and awareness. I think they will simply not want to reward such an overwhelmingly "black film."

So why does this matter?

Oscars mean big money for films, especially smaller films like 12 Years a Slave. A lot of people who might skip a movie normally will give it a second look if it benefits from all the free publicity of an Oscar win.

Also, the best picture award, at least from a historical perspective, makes a statement about what the consensus best film of the year was.

That said, of course the academy gets it wrong all the time especially recently when safer fare like The King's Speech and The Artist have topped far worthier films.

Cuaron directs Clooney, Bullock in Gravity

Gravity and American Hustle (the two films that are also considered front-runners for best picture) are already enormous hits and arguably would be with or without an Oscar victory. I also think they're not quite as great as 12 Years a Slave but in the end that won't matter. The race is between those two.

At the end of the day, the Oscars don't usually split best picture and director, and I think that gives Gravity an edge. It's also the most popular film box-office wise in the group so it could make the case for being the popular choice. It's also a groundbreaking technical achievement which seems to point the way towards the future of movie-making.

On the other hand American Hustle is more of an actor's movie, which appeals to the largest voting bloc of Academy voters (actors and actresses). Still, that movie feels too light and too small for best picture. I loved it but it wasn't an important movie, just a very entertaining one. It does seem to be beloved by the Hollywood establishment but I don't think voters want another Crash situation on their hands.

Here's the thing, because there are nine best picture nominees, the voting for the winner is weighted. Smart prognosticators point out that Gravity is far less polarizing than 12 Years a Slave and American Hustle, meaning it will almost always be ranked among voters' top three choices. If it beats 12 Years a Slave they will be a lot of disappointment but little outrage. It was a fantastic film and it will hold up over the years -- which to me marks a movie's greatness.

I, of course, could be wrong. The race is that close and if you didn't already have a reason to tune in tonight this would be it.

As a serious student of film, I'm supposed to not care about the Academy Awards, but I do. I love watching the pageantry, the emotional speeches, the endless montages. It was a good year for film no matter who ends up winning and I'm looking forward to a good show.

Oh, and if 12 Years a Slave pulls off some sort of upset -- I will be dancing on my couch.