My take on early Oscar buzz: Let the campaign season begin!

Happy Thanksgiving. Although election season is behind us, a far more competitive campaign period is underway, that's right -- the road to Oscar. Although over a dozen contenders have still not even been released there are several movies generating a lot of buzz and even a handful of surefire nominees.

My two favorite films of the year, Birdman and Boyhood, seem like locks for nominations if not top honors but with no clear overwhelming favorite, this year's race could be wide open in several major categories. If you haven't already guessed, I am huge nerd about this stuff. I know it doesn't really matter in the greater scheme of things, but what the hell, I find it fun.

Best Picture: As has been the case for the last few years, the academy is still allowing up to 10 best picture nominees. It's all very complicated but depending on how many first place votes a movie gets we could wind up with only nine. I don't oppose the idea of a larger field -- the more quality movies that get recognition the better -- but usually it's still coming down to two or three movies come Oscar night and that is if there isn't a huge frontrunner.

This year it's hard to say what will be the film to beat. None of the most critically acclaimed films of the year has been a runaway commercial hit (which unfortunately matters a great deal in the race, with the rare exception of The Hurt Locker). My picks as of right now would be Boyhood and Birdman, but neither of these films is conventional enough for the win. I think Foxcatcher deserves a spot, but apparently it's somewhat divisive among the critics.

Some folks still see Interstellar making the cut, which surprises me. Even its fans must admit it's not Christopher Nolan's best work and yet there is a space for a commercial project here. Buzz is building for the Benedict Cumberbatch code-breaking thriller The Imitation Game and although it looks like another Beautiful Mind, the same goes for the Stephen Hawking biopic The Theory of Everything. The one wild card is the Martin Luther King film Selma, which could really shake up the race.

Best Actor: My personal pick, Michael Keaton in Birdman, is a lock for a nomination here. Steve Carrell looked like a sure thing for Foxcatcher but then some critics panned the movie. I still think he makes it because his performance is so transformational. Cumberbatch has been really buoyed by a growing fan base, I could see him joining this competitive field. If nothing else than because of the iconic nature of the MLK role, I think black British actor David Oyelowo has a shot for Selma. That leaves two spots. Eddie Redmayne will surely make the cut for his physical performance as Hawking, although I fear the movie will be unbearably sentimental. I wouldn't be furious if the final spot (which is very much up for grabs) went to Bill Murray for St. Vincent. I am a defender of this breakout indie hit. It's not the most original movie or the most profound, but Murray is really terrific in it and he deserves consideration.

Birdman

Best Actress: Another disappointing year for women's roles. The only real contender I've seen so far is Rosamund Pike for Gone Girl. As fun as she is in that movie, I don't expect her to seriously contend for the win. Most pundits are predicting a two-way race between the long overdue Julianne Moore (playing a woman experiencing the early stages of Alzheimer's in Still Alice) and Reese Witherspoon for her comeback role in Wild. I would say Moore has the advantage, having never won before and at least as far as the early reviews are concerned, giving the most deserving performance.

Best Supporting Actor: This could wind up being the most competitive category of the night. Edward Norton is a scene-stealing riot in Birdman and he's never won before. The same goes for Mark Ruffalo, who gives a moving and likable performance in Foxcatcher as the movie's most normal character. Everyone has been raving about J.K. Simmons scenery chewing performance in Whiplash. And then there's Ethan Hawke's endearing and epic performance in Boyhood. It's going to be really interesting to see how this race shapes up.

Best Supporting Actress: Speaking of Boyhood, I will freak if Patricia Arquette isn't nominated in this category. I just thought she, more than anyone else, was the heart of Boyhood. She was so real, it didn't feel like a performance. I sort of fell in love with her flawed but humane character. Emma Stone showed more chops than she has previously in Birdman. The rest of the category is still filling out, but rest assured, Meryl Streep will probably be there in some capacity.

Best Director: No matter what, Richard Linklater will be recognized for his historic achievement with Boyhood. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu is probably also a lock for trying his hand at comedy for the first time with the visually inventive Birdman. The rest of this category is still wide open. It'd be nice to see a woman in the mix -- Ava DuVernay for Selma. As much as I loved Gone Girl and think David Fincher has been snubbed repeatedly, I don't believe this is his year. I would say the same for Christopher Nolan. We might wind up with some unknowns, or an unheralded newcomer like J.C. Chandor (whose A Most Violent Year looks potentially great) could sneak in.

Nominations and the awards themselves are still months away, so get out to theaters and catch these quality films while you still can!