Oscar pick-a-palooza year three: Who is the Best Actress?

Brie Larson in Room

This is the third in a series of of annual Oscar predictions posts featuring myself and my friend Brian Wezowicz of Too Fat 4 Skinny Jeans. Check out his blog and give it some love and in the meantime, read our take on this years Academy Award nominees.


BRIAN: And that is why I defer to you for top notch insight and analysis. I've always assumed that Ruffalo already has an Oscar. He's too good of an actor to not have one on his shelf. Is it too late to change my dark horse pick?

On to our next category: Best Actress. To me, it seems like we have two front runners and a bunch of also-rans. I think this category boils down to a two horse race between Cate Blanchett and Brie Larson. The one here that looks like she was nominated based solely on reputation is Jennifer Lawrence for Joy. It's her lowest rated David O. Russell collaboration, so I'm not sure why she's there.

I hate to admit that I haven't seen any of these movies this year. I'm dying to see Room, and Carol really peaks my interest. I've heard mixed things about Brooklyn. A local radio show described it as almost a Lifetime movie on the big screen. Here are the nominees: 

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn 

Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett.

I'm going with my gut on this one. I'm not sure the Academy will give the award to the slight favorite in Brie Larson. They aren't always on the cutting edge when it comes to younger, first-time nominees. We'll see. I'm going with Blanchett here.

Cate Blanchett in Carol

Who Should Win: Brie Larson.

A stunning performance in one of your favorite movies of the year. I desperately need to see this wonderful film. Plus, wouldn't it be nice to have a fresh face holding the golden statue? 

Dark Horse: Brie Larson

I think she has a really good opportunity to pull off the upset.

Who takes home your Best Actress Oscar?

ADAM: I think your assessment of this race is correct. Although I have heard much better things about Brooklyn than apparently you have. I have tickets to a screening of that one for next week, so I will reserve judgment. I think virtually no one outside of industry insiders has seen 45 Years (it hasn't even grossed $1 million yet) but I have seen nothing but critical adulation for Charlotte Rampling, who is a great character actress (see The Verdict or Stardust Memories).

The other three performances I did see. Joy I actually just saw last night, and I enjoyed it a lot more than I expected to. I was starting to get a little cynical about Jennifer Lawrence. She to me has become something of a cross between Julia Roberts and Meryl Streep. She's both America's sweetheart and the actress who has her pick of any movie she wants right now AND she is an Oscar darling who will get nominated for virtually every performance she gives. That said, she is terrific in Joy and although that film has its detractors, I think she deserves to be in this race.

Still, one of my favorite lead female performances of the year should have been here and was snubbed, that would be Lily Tomlin in Grandma. I thought both she and that film were incredibly underrated and deserved breakout status, but unfortunately they didn't catch on with audiences or Oscar voters.

But alas these are the nominees we have.

Who will win: Brie Larson

Although the subject matter of Room is challenging, I think she is so compelling and charismatic in the film that it won't matter. She has been steadily building up a reputation as a strong dramatic actress and the Oscars have a huge preference for ingenues in this category (the fact that the 40-something Cate Blanchett is considered a 'veteran' speaks to the ersatz sexism still entrenched in this industry). Blanchett was terrific in Carol, but she also won just two years ago, and has a Supporting trophy in her pocket as well. She may win another one some day but I don't think this is her night. 

Who should win: Brie Larson

She gave one of the most moving, emotional performances of the year. The surprise nominations for Room in not just the Best Picture but Best Director categories suggest that Oscar voters 'got' the film. And with the caveat that I haven't see the Rambling or Ronan movies, it feels like the least typically Oscar-baity of the lot, which I love. Like sidebar -- it would have been such a cool, unconventional choice to see Charlize Theron here for her deserving work in Mad Max: Fury Road, but as you've mentioned previously, the snooty-ness is strong with this voting body.

Dark horse: Cate Blanchett

I want to say Jennifer Lawrence here but I just don't think they will give it to a film this polarizing, although Meryl Streep won for The Iron Lady, a film that was pretty god awful. I don't think Charlotte Rampling or Saorise Ronan's films are getting enough traction to overtake Larson or Blanchett. And Blanchett is an Oscars favorite. So although I think Larson is pretty close to a lock, I also believe Blanchett is her biggest competition.

P.S. Shortly after making my picks I read that Charlotte Rampling, in her infinite ignorance, argued that a boycott of the Oscars by black actors was "racist against whites," so yeah I don't think she has a prayer of winning.