Oscar-Pick-a-Palooza: Who will win Best Supporting Actress?

Viola Davis in Fences

Back by popular demand (mostly my mother and our spouses), it's time for our 4th(!) annual Oscar picks.  Thanks for joining me once again.  I really look forward to it each year.  I am glad you're back in full swing with your blog after taking December off.  I am also really glad that we got to get together in person this year.  My son still misses you!

Brian: With the Academy Award nominations hot off the presses, it's time to jump right in.

2016 was a great year for us personally (the birth of my daughter/you getting married), but a trying year for just about everything else.  I don't mean to rehash the events of November (and the countless celebrity death), but I feel like the world needs the movies like never before.  It's always been my happy place, and I assume for you as well.

2016 was a great year for prestige films and a terrible year for blockbusters.  Audiences seem to have finally wised up the sequel/remake/reboot curse.  I can't remember a summer with so many flops before.  The DC Universe looks to be on rocky ground both critically and possibly commercially.  Can the DC Universe survive if Wonder Woman is a steaming pile of dog shit like Suicide Squad (I actually kinda enjoyed Batman v. Superman, but recognize its many flaws). To me, there were only a handful of good blockbusters put out this year with the rest being relegated to the scrap heap of history.  At least we can confirm that the Star Wars universe is in good hands!

On the other hand, prestige films had a great year.  From the masterpiece that was Moonlight, to the commercial and critical darlings La La Land and Arrival, it seemed like good, original ideas can thrive again.

This years Oscars looks to be a two-horse race between the aforementioned Moonlight and La La Land with the later garnering an historic 14 nominations. Sadly, I have not seen either film yet.  I hope to before the broadcast, but I have a question for you?  Is La La Land really that good?  Or is this an instance of Hollywood stroking its own ego again?  I can't imagine it's 14 nominations good...

The other major bit of news is that #OscarsSoWhite looks to be a thing of the past, as this year's nominees appear to to at least be #OscarsNotSoWhite.  Hopefully as the Academy expands its membership, these conversations (and hashtags) will be a thing of the past. 

I also didn't see a lot of glaring snubs in this year's list of nominees.  With only 5 per category, there are always bound to be some snubs.  I just didn't see any glaring examples like Ben Affleck missing a director nomination for Argo.  Mel Gibson getting a directing nod was surely a surprise, but not a total shock given the comeback narrative surrounding the film.  Also, did anyone really believe that Deadpool was going to get a Best Picture nomination?

I'm still playing catch up with seeing a lot of these movies, but I hope to tackle more before the awards are handed out.

With that being said, it's time to move on to our first category... Best Supporting Actress.  Here are the nominees:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Will Win:  Viola Davis.  It's her year.  I absolutely adored her performance as a principled woman married to a flawed man in Fences.  It was heart-breakingly (is that a word?) raw and beautiful.

Should Win:  Davis.  She should and will win.  I don't think it's even a close contest.

Dark Horse:  Michelle Williams.  Casey Affleck looks like a lock for Manchester, but will The Academy make it 2/2 with a surprise Best Actress win for Williams?  I doubt it.

What are your thoughts?

Naomi Harris in Moonlight

Adam: Aww that's sweet -- and hey, I'll take any readers I can get. You're spot on about 2016 -- wonderful for me personally -- but in general kind of a letdown, but I actually thought this was a very strong year for the movies, definitely my favorite year since 2012 -- which was the last time I had such a hard time pairing down my favorites to just 10 films. I suppose you have a point about the blockbusters -- although we both did love the biggest hit of last year, Rogue One, but that really was more of an anomaly.

I wasn't even bowled over by some of big hits that audiences and critics liked -- here's looking at you Deadpool. I have sort of begun to resign myself to the fact that by-and-large I have outgrown Summer movie season -- those films aren't intended for me anymore -- even though once and a while, a behemoth like Captain America: Civil War revives the kid in me.

I think what excites me most about this year is the surge of up-and-coming filmmakers doing great work. People like Ava DuVernay, Denis Villeneuve, Damien Chazelle, Barry Jenkins, and Jeremy Saulnier, did stellar work, and if they're not already household names they soon will be. Obviously I am a total fanboy of the Scorsese-Spielberg era filmmakers, but at some point the torch must be passed and this may be one of those years we look back on and say it happened, albeit without a ton of fanfare.

Films like Moonlight, Green Room and La La Land (which is great, but probably over-nominated)  were unmistakably the vision of real filmmakers with distinct voices and perspectives -- even when steeped in a genre, they were oddly personal films. And that has me feeling very encouraged about the future of movies.

Also, unlike the last few years, I am mostly pleased with this year's nominees. Considering the slate of films under consideration it would have been an utter travesty to see #OscarsSoWhite for the third year in a row -- Hollywood insiders aren't dumb enough to let that happen -- and while one my personal favorites was -- I think -- unjustly shut out (20th Century Women), I can't quibble with most of the choices (although as per usual there are few films I've yet to see). There is no glaring Selma-type omission this year. And that's a relief.

To your point there were a couple of mild surprises -- but none of them disheartening. The Best Picture race doesn't have a Blind Side style embarrassment in it, and if anything they skew more art house than blockbuster. I too, raised an eyebrow at Mel Gibson's return to glory, although I haven't seen Hacksaw Ridge, I have never been sold on his being this brilliant director. Braveheart has never done it for me, although I appreciated the craftsmanship of Apocalypto. I have never seen The Passion of the Christ, and I am pretty sure I never will.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Will Win:  Viola Davis.  I will say I consider this category fraud. I remember when the credits rolled on Fences -- I said best female performance of the year hands down, give this woman the Oscar. Having seen 20th Century Women -- although it's a very different, less emotionally demanding role -- I thought Annette Bening warranted a shot at the trophy too. But I thought Davis gave if not the best performance of the year than one of the top two or three.

Clearly the decision to run her in Supporting is a calculated one, and while that irks me -- because I don't think it does justice to the significance of her work here -- I think it will have proven to be the smart move.

Should Win: Viola Davis. The most emotionally raw and powerful performance in a film full of them, in a year full of them. I feel bad for Naomie Harris, before Viola Davis was moved to this category I feel like this was her award to lose. But now I think this is probably the safest acting race to predict this year. Viola Davis is one of those actors where it feels like a travesty that they don't have an Oscar. Like that dude from The Artist has an Oscar, but not Viola Davis? That's no bueno.

I also want to add that while I loved Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures, I thought the real breakout star and scene stealing supporting turn came from Janelle Monae. I would not have been upset if she got that slot over Spencer, especially since she already has an Oscar and it'd be cool to see someone new get in the mix. I also thought Greta Gerwig was a revelation in 20th Century Women, but I digress. I have yet to see Lion, so I can't speak to Nicole Kidman's work.

Dark Horse:  Michelle Williams or Naomi Harris. I could go either way with this. If there is a huge surge for Moonlight, I could see it benefiting Harris, who gives one of the film's most complex and memorable performances. And Michelle WIlliams has just been so great for so long -- and is heartbreaking in her few short scenes in Manchester by the Sea -- if there is a huge groundswell for that movie (it is nominated in a lot of categories) I could see her pulling off an upset too.