Oscar pick-a-palooza year three: What is the Best Picture?

This is the sixth and final entry in a series of of annual Oscar predictions posts featuring myself and my friend Brian Wezowicz of Too Fat 4 Skinny Jeans. 

BRIAN: Leonardo wasn't nominated for Django??? Tragic. I totally agree with your statement about Johnny Depp's work in Black Mass. The Academy has a really bad short term memory, and unfortunately, September is light years away.

It's now time for the big award (unless I forgot another category)... Best Picture. You and I are both on record as not liking the "up to 10" movie rule of this award.

I don't know what the cut off is, but there are a number of movies that could have fit into those final three spots. Creed revitalized the Rocky franchise, while Star Wars was nothing short of breathtaking.

Personally, I would have enjoyed seeing Inside Out crack the top ten. I think it's Pixar's best movie in years, and a stunning piece of film making. I know it's a lock to win the best animated movie, but if there was ever a year in which an animated movie could stand a chance to win Best Picture, I think it's this one. I enjoyed it that much.

Of the seven nominated, I think there's a frontrunner (The Revenant), a close second (Mad Max: Fury Road), and a bunch of others that have a decent chance. Of the three years we've been doing this, I'm the least sure in my pick.

Here are the nominees:

BEST PICTURE
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Who Will Win: The Revenant. I could see a split director/best picture, where The Revenant wins best picture, and George Miller wins director and vice versa. I think The Revenant has the most momentum going in to the big night. I think it squeaks out a win.

Who Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road. It's my #3 and your #1 movie of the year, and I could have easily placed it at #1. It took a 30+ year old franchise and made it fresh and exciting. There isn't an uninteresting frame in the entire film. Plus, Hollywood loves big epic spectacles, and this certainly fits the bill.

Dark Horse: The Big Short. I can't quite put my finger on it, but I have a feeling about this movie. It's funny, did well at the box office, and has a ton of stars in it. I can't see it getting shut out. I could also have gone with The Martian, but with Ridley Scott getting shut out in the directing category, I don't like its chances.

So that's it for me. Who takes home your big prize?

In a side note... thanks for doing this again. I really enjoy talking movies, and I love your blog. You have a great way of making your readers feel like they're in the theater with you. I would like to try to do this more often. I loved talking Ghostbusters with you (even though I'm still on the outs with it... Ha!)

ADAM: Dude, this is hard. #That'sWhatSheSaid. This has got to be the most difficult to predict Oscar race I've seen in years. Now that I've caught up and seen all the films nominated, I do think there are a few you can scratch off right off the bat.

I liked Bridge of Spies a lot but it didn't resonate quite enough to topple contenders that feel fresher. I was somewhat underwhelmed by Brooklyn -- it's not a bad movie, but also not a great one. I think Room is too small a film to topple some of these others. That leaves The Revenant, The Martian, Mad Max Fury Road, Spotlight and The Big Short.

I think you can eliminate The Martian next because its director, Ridley Scott, wasn't even nominated. Although in the past that benefitted Argo, I think that was a unique circumstance where Hollywood was devastated for poor multi-millionaire Ben Affleck, and wanted to a do mea culpa.

Even though Scott is a living legend, and The Martian may be his biggest crossover success, I don't sense the same aggrieved feeling for him. Director and Best Picture may still split this year, but I doubt a film will win whose director isn't even in the mix.

Sidebar -- I hate to sound like broken record, but in such a wide field Creed, Straight Outta Compton and The Force Awakens should of and could have taken the spots occupied by Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn and maybe even Room, although that film made my top 10.

So I think this usually competitive Oscar race is actually down to four movies. There's Spotlight, which everyone loves but very few people are going to see, Mad Max which also enjoys universal acclaim but is, at the end of the day, an action film, The Revenant, which is really hot right now but also, technically, the nominee with the weakest reviews and The Big Short, which is sort of in the middle of the pack in terms of being an audience pleaser and a more traditional Oscar-baity movie.

Will win: Spotlight

Actors are the biggest branch of Oscar voters and I don't see them going for Mad Max, which despite its epic performances is viewed more as a technical achievement. And despite how hot The Revenant is, I see rewarding that film with Best Actor instead. Between The Big Short and Spotlight I think it's really close, and the PGA win gives Adam McKay's film more momentum, but I am kind of convinced that the more polished film will win here. Although I could be totally off base.

Should win: Mad Max Fury Road

I've said it before and I'll say it again. My favorite film of the year by a pretty wide margin. I could watch it almost anytime. I am still in awe that they pulled it off and I'm thrilled that it's here. Should it win Best Picture it would go down as the COOLEST winner since perhaps No Country for Old Men or perhaps The Godfather Part II prior to that. But the coolest movies never win. Apocalypse Now lost. Pulp Fiction lost. Star Wars lost. I could on and on.

Dark Horse: The Big Short

I think I opted for Spotlight over this one because I simply thought it was the better film. The Big Short was a little too pleased with its own cleverness at times and I think its overall premise was inherently problematic, whereas Spotlight, in the least showy way possible, presented heroes you could root for without reservations and told a sensitive story with refreshing restraint. But it's not been winning many of the big awards and seems to have already peaked at the box office. If the voters want to go more populist, this seems to be the best choice.

Seeing 'Brooklyn' in the shadow of #OscarsSoWhite

Saoirse Ronan in Brooklyn

Brooklyn is a perfectly nice little movie, with some heartfelt performances (although as terrific as she is, Saoirse Ronan's pretty much saintly character has to do a prodigious amount of sobbing), but in the aftermath of the #OscarsSoWhite controversy, I couldn't help but resent the film a little bit.

Set in a hermetically sealed, idyllic version of 1950s Brooklyn, the film does not have a single character of color save for a few extras, who never utter a line of dialogue. I understand that this film isn't about racial conflicts, or the civil rights movement, but not even a mention of Jackie Robinson? It's like an alternative universe.

The story, pleasant as it is, has no real compelling conflict -- our heroine's great challenges are homesickness and deciding between two gainfully employed and adorable would-be spouses.

I couldn't help but think about the fact that a film like this, with no major stars and a sentimental, even sappy, story would never be financed and given the awards push this film has received if it didn't feature an all-white cast. And that made me angry.

I didn't hate this film. Don't get me wrong. It's charming and sweet. It's very pretty to look at. It's the kind of movie you can comfortably recommend to your parents. But it didn't have an ounce of the emotional impact on me that Creed or Beasts of No Nation or Straight Outta Compton did.

Now, I don't believe that Best Picture nominees need to be about big overarching themes. I adored Lost In Translation, and that is little more than a small character study of two lonely people. So the lack of narrative complexity didn't bother me when it came to Brooklyn.

I simply felt like I wasn't seeing something I hadn't seen before, and, as I did with another critical darling -- Carol -- I often was ahead of the film's plot, mentally telegraphing scenes before they happened. Is that the mark of a great film? I don't think so.

Beasts of No Nation

But Brooklyn will likely find an audience, even if it doesn't take home any Oscars. It will likely draw in more white viewers who simply presume they will be able to better relate to its characters than the ones in a so-called 'black' film, while minority audiences are often left with no choice than to identify with white characters on screen, and make the most of it.

Speaking of white privilege, without spoiling the film -- it is fascinating that the lead character arrives in the U.S. from Ireland with a pre-arranged job and place to stay. Oh, and she almost instantly falls in love (if you have seen the trailer, you have largely seen this movie), and yet we are supposed to feel deeply sorry for her.

It's a tribute to Ronan and the cast that the film is as engaging as it is. And while the costumes and cinematography are first rate I couldn't shake the feeling that I was watching a film lacking heat and authenticity. It was a pretty painting without a lot of depth inside.

Still, it's refreshing to see a film with a female protagonist with agency and I can't say you shouldn't see this film. What I will say to those who are refusing to see Beasts of No Nation because they fear the subject matter is too heavy, you ought to see that too in addition to this.

Black audiences have to often endure treacly odes to a pre-civil rights America, so the very least you can do is get a glimpse of a life outside your comfort zones.

Oscar pick-a-palooza year three: Who is the Best Actor?

Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant

This is the fifth in a series of of annual Oscar predictions posts featuring myself and my friend Brian Wezowicz of Too Fat 4 Skinny Jeans. 

Check out his blog and give it some love and in the meantime, read our take on this year's Academy Award nominees.

BRIAN: Ah yes, Best Actor! I completely flaked on this one. Chalk it up to sleep deprivation with the new kiddo. Maybe it's because (in my mind) this category is such a foregone conclusion, that I completely omitted it.

To me, this is a one horse race. It's Leo's year and anything else will completely shock me. The Revenant is getting praised for its harsh shooting conditions (using only natural light and facing the harsh wintry conditions), while Leo seems to be getting the same praise. Is it his best role? Probably not (to me, it's The Wolf Of Wall Street), but the Academy definitely likes to make their stars wait their due course. Like his mentor, Martin Scorsese, Leo probably should have won for his earlier, better work. But here we are and one of America's greatest actors will finally be getting his name called.

There were other great performances (I especially enjoyed Matt Damon's role in The Martian), as well as a few obvious snubs (Michael B. Jordan in Creed comes to mind), but none are strong enough to stop Leo's Titanic (see what I did there?) like momentum. Here are the nominees: 

BEST ACTOR
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo 
Matt Damon, The Martian 
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant 
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs 
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl 

Who Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio.

He finally gets his name called, and deservedly so.

Who Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio.

While it may not be his best role to date, he still deserves to win.

Dark Horse: Matt Damon.

Matt Damon in The Martian

He's already won the Golden Globe, but I don't think he's got enough momentum. Redmayne won it last year, so he's out. Cranston's reward is the nomination, and Fassbender was criminally overlooked in his refreshing take on Steve Jobs.

It's Leo's night. Everyone else is along for the ride. Who is your best actor?

ADAM: No worries. I'm sleep deprived, too, and I don't even have a good excuse. And yeah I totally agree with you. I am a Leonardo DiCaprio fan and I do think he gives a terrific, committed performance in The Revenant. It's probably not his best, in fact my two favorite DiCaprio performances are films he wasn't even nominated for -- The Departed and Django Unchained. He's been so good for so long and probably deserved to win a couple years where he didn't.

In a year where the competition for Best Actor isn't as stiff as it usually is, it appears that this narrative has taken hold that he HAS to win, which is a little annoying to me. Although I have no problem with it. I would have liked to have seen Michael B. Jordan nominated here too. Creed, and Stallone's supporting performance, work because of Jordan, hopefully he'll get there soon. And I was a big fan of Johnny Depp's work in Black Mass, which I guess just faded away since it came out so early.

Who will win: Leonardo DiCaprio

He gives a memorable, visceral performance in The Revenant. It's not actually the type of role that usually wins Oscars (Robert Redford, for instance, was unjustly snubbed for his similarly rigorous performance in All Is Lost). It's got minimal dialogue (he has one big Oscar type speech) and he spends much of it incapacitated. But he is compelling to watch here and while in a perfect world the best acting should be all that matters, narratives usually matter more when it comes to this type of thing.

Who should win: Leonardo DiCaprio.

That being said -- I do think DiCaprio probably gave the best performance here. I haven't see Trumbo, but I've heard the Bryan Cranston film is merely OK. I really liked Michael Fassbender's performance in Steve Jobs and am happy to see it recognized, but I might put it one notch below. I wasn't as high on The Martian as you were. I though it was a very good mainstream piece of entertainment, and I thought Matt Damon did wonders with a well-crafted movie star role, but I wasn't emotionally affected by it in the same way I was with say Gravity. I have not seen Redmayne's performance either, but I've heard very mixed things about the film and needless to say we're not going to have the third ever back-to-back Best Actor winner on Feb. 28. Spencer Tracy, Tom Hanks and Eddie Redmayne? I don't think so.

Dark Horse: Matt Damon

And I contradict myself within seconds again. I think Damon is also deserving of an Oscar. Even though some of my favorite performances of his -- namely The Talented Mr. Ripley and also The Departed -- were never nominated. He seems like a immensely good guy -- the whitesplanining diversity incident notwithstanding. And his movie was a big fat hit. I think he'll get one eventually, but I think if anyone can upset DiCaprio, it's him. But now that The Revenant has become a big hit in its own right, I don't think it's possible for that to happen.

Oscar pick-a-palooza year three: Who is the Best Director?

George Miller on the set of Mad Max: Fury Road

This is the fourth in a series of of annual Oscar predictions posts featuring myself and my friend Brian Wezowicz of Too Fat 4 Skinny Jeans. 

Check out his blog and give it some love and in the meantime, read our take on this year's Academy Award nominees.

BRIAN: Uggghhhhhhh! Ah, yes... the age old problem of racism against whites. See you at the next Donald Trump rally Charlotte. Yikes! I wonder how she'll feel about today's emergency measures taken by the Academy to ensure diversity within the nominees. I don't quite know how to segue from that to our next category, so I'll just go ahead and cut straight to the chase.

I feel like this is a strong group of directors. From the big and bold world of the apocalypse (Miller) to perhaps the most innovative director working today (Iñárritu), to a great director working out of his comfort zone (McKay), I feel like we have a dynamite group of directors. I'm really torn here. I love the fact that George Miller was nominated. Besides Stallone, there isn't a more rewarding "comeback" story in this year's race than George Miller.

I wasn't the biggest Mad Max fan growing up, and so it took me awhile to see Fury Road in the theaters. But my hesitation was completely without merit. Without exaggeration, it may be one of the most beautiful films ever made, certainly one of the most exciting. Throw in the fact that it may be one of the most feminist action movies ever made and you have the perfect recipe for an Oscar winner (plus, it was just so damn fun!). However, I feel like the tide is swelling for The Revenant and it could be in for a big night.

Here are the nominees:

DIRECTING 
Adam McKay - The Big Short
George Miller - Mad Max: Fury Road
Alejandro G. Iñárritu - The Revenant
Lenny Abrahamson - Room
Tom McCarthy - Spotlight

Who Will Win: Iñárritu

I don't think anything is slowing this one down. The only thing that could keep him back is I don't believe there has ever been a back to back directing winner. Hell, you can probably count the number of major category back to back winners on one hand. Was Tom Hanks the last to do it? I know that Christoph Waltz won two Oscars, but his movies weren't released in two straight years.

Who Should Win: George Miller

I honestly can't remember seeing a movie quite like Mad Max: Fury Road. It's the best Max movie by a long shot. The Academy loves big time event movies (Gladiator, Return Of The King, Braveheart, etc.), so I could see them going with Miller here. I may have to go home and watch this movie tonight!

Adam McKay

Dark Horse: I really think that it's either one or the other, but If I had to pick one I would go with Adam McKay. His first dip into drama was a surprising success.

Who you got?

ADAM: Are we going to come back to Best Actor? I think the so-called emergency measures are long overdue. I've always thought it was absurd that you had these ancient Oscar voters who reportedly don't even watch most of the films and who are so disconnected from what's happening in the movies that they aren't familiar with any actor under the age of 40 who isn't named Jennifer Lawrence.

It's sad that it took the embarrassment of #OscarsSoWhite to do something dramatic, but hey it took a massacre in a church to bring down the Confederate flag in South Carolina, so what can you do.

This is a really hard category to predict. I think at least four of the five nominees have a legit chance to win. I agree that George Miller has the best "comeback" narrative. After doing some kids movies, he got back to what he does best -- mind blowing action that is both gorgeous to look at and staged (mostly) for real. Iñárritu is on a real hot streak with The Revenant coming right after his triumph with Birdman. McCarthy made one of the best journalism films of all time with Spotlight and Adam McKay showed he has real range, with his first serious film The Big Short. Room is terrific, but I think Lenny Abrahamson's nomination is his reward here.

I'm still smarting over the the snub of Ryan Coogler for his work on Creed, and quite frankly J.J. Abrams, who did a miraculous job rejuvenating Star Wars, deserved some consideration too, but I digress.

Who will win: This is so hard but I am going to take a risk here and say George Miller.

I think he will benefit from the entirety of the academy voting for this one, and arguably of all the nominees his film is the most distinctly a director's movie. At 70, I think voters understand that he's due and as well-received as The Revenant is I don't see Iñárritu winning Best Director two years in a row. I also feel like McCarthy's film is just too small to win, but I could be wrong.

Who should win: George Miller

This is a no brainer for me because Mad Max: Fury Road was my favorite movie of the year. I thought the film was visionary and original and a win for him would be an acknowledgment of what an ambitious feat he pulled off.

Dark horse: Adam McKay

His film just won the PGA, which I think makes it a dark horse to win Best Picture, and while these two awards sometimes split, they usually don't. The Big Short is enough of a crowd pleaser and not particularly divisive with critics, so it might pull off an upset here.

Oscar pick-a-palooza year three: Who is the Best Actress?

Brie Larson in Room

This is the third in a series of of annual Oscar predictions posts featuring myself and my friend Brian Wezowicz of Too Fat 4 Skinny Jeans. Check out his blog and give it some love and in the meantime, read our take on this years Academy Award nominees.


BRIAN: And that is why I defer to you for top notch insight and analysis. I've always assumed that Ruffalo already has an Oscar. He's too good of an actor to not have one on his shelf. Is it too late to change my dark horse pick?

On to our next category: Best Actress. To me, it seems like we have two front runners and a bunch of also-rans. I think this category boils down to a two horse race between Cate Blanchett and Brie Larson. The one here that looks like she was nominated based solely on reputation is Jennifer Lawrence for Joy. It's her lowest rated David O. Russell collaboration, so I'm not sure why she's there.

I hate to admit that I haven't seen any of these movies this year. I'm dying to see Room, and Carol really peaks my interest. I've heard mixed things about Brooklyn. A local radio show described it as almost a Lifetime movie on the big screen. Here are the nominees: 

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn 

Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett.

I'm going with my gut on this one. I'm not sure the Academy will give the award to the slight favorite in Brie Larson. They aren't always on the cutting edge when it comes to younger, first-time nominees. We'll see. I'm going with Blanchett here.

Cate Blanchett in Carol

Who Should Win: Brie Larson.

A stunning performance in one of your favorite movies of the year. I desperately need to see this wonderful film. Plus, wouldn't it be nice to have a fresh face holding the golden statue? 

Dark Horse: Brie Larson

I think she has a really good opportunity to pull off the upset.

Who takes home your Best Actress Oscar?

ADAM: I think your assessment of this race is correct. Although I have heard much better things about Brooklyn than apparently you have. I have tickets to a screening of that one for next week, so I will reserve judgment. I think virtually no one outside of industry insiders has seen 45 Years (it hasn't even grossed $1 million yet) but I have seen nothing but critical adulation for Charlotte Rampling, who is a great character actress (see The Verdict or Stardust Memories).

The other three performances I did see. Joy I actually just saw last night, and I enjoyed it a lot more than I expected to. I was starting to get a little cynical about Jennifer Lawrence. She to me has become something of a cross between Julia Roberts and Meryl Streep. She's both America's sweetheart and the actress who has her pick of any movie she wants right now AND she is an Oscar darling who will get nominated for virtually every performance she gives. That said, she is terrific in Joy and although that film has its detractors, I think she deserves to be in this race.

Still, one of my favorite lead female performances of the year should have been here and was snubbed, that would be Lily Tomlin in Grandma. I thought both she and that film were incredibly underrated and deserved breakout status, but unfortunately they didn't catch on with audiences or Oscar voters.

But alas these are the nominees we have.

Who will win: Brie Larson

Although the subject matter of Room is challenging, I think she is so compelling and charismatic in the film that it won't matter. She has been steadily building up a reputation as a strong dramatic actress and the Oscars have a huge preference for ingenues in this category (the fact that the 40-something Cate Blanchett is considered a 'veteran' speaks to the ersatz sexism still entrenched in this industry). Blanchett was terrific in Carol, but she also won just two years ago, and has a Supporting trophy in her pocket as well. She may win another one some day but I don't think this is her night. 

Who should win: Brie Larson

She gave one of the most moving, emotional performances of the year. The surprise nominations for Room in not just the Best Picture but Best Director categories suggest that Oscar voters 'got' the film. And with the caveat that I haven't see the Rambling or Ronan movies, it feels like the least typically Oscar-baity of the lot, which I love. Like sidebar -- it would have been such a cool, unconventional choice to see Charlize Theron here for her deserving work in Mad Max: Fury Road, but as you've mentioned previously, the snooty-ness is strong with this voting body.

Dark horse: Cate Blanchett

I want to say Jennifer Lawrence here but I just don't think they will give it to a film this polarizing, although Meryl Streep won for The Iron Lady, a film that was pretty god awful. I don't think Charlotte Rampling or Saorise Ronan's films are getting enough traction to overtake Larson or Blanchett. And Blanchett is an Oscars favorite. So although I think Larson is pretty close to a lock, I also believe Blanchett is her biggest competition.

P.S. Shortly after making my picks I read that Charlotte Rampling, in her infinite ignorance, argued that a boycott of the Oscars by black actors was "racist against whites," so yeah I don't think she has a prayer of winning.

Enjoying 'Joy' and wondering WTF happened to Robert De Niro?

De Niro in Joy

I finally got around to seeing the Jennifer Lawrence film Joy last night which was fortuitous since the legendary Robert De Niro gives a terrific performance in that film, and this weekend he is starring in what may represent the nadir of his storied career -- the Zac Efron vehicle Dirty Grandpa.

At 72, De Niro's options as an actor could be diminishing, but he is bankable enough and certainly respected enough to probably get any project he wants off the ground. But for some reason, with a couple of exceptions, over the last 15 years or so he appears to be on a jihad against his own legacy.

This is a guy who has a legitimate claim to being our nation's greatest living actor, but he has devolved so deeply into self parody that longtime fans like myself find themselves at a loss. If Dirty Grandpa's reviews are to be believed, it has no genuine laughs or redeeming value. I have no problem with De Niro doing comedy, mind you. He did it quite well in 1988's Midnight Run.

But there is something intrinsically sad about seeing him hit on younger women and prance around without his shirt, although he looks fit and engaged,
which is good for him, I guess. Still, it's fascinating that of the actors he arrived in Hollywood alongside, it's Sylvester Stallone, of all people, who's giving a heartfelt, challenging performance on screen, while De Niro seems to be doing strictly paycheck projects like The Intern.

In Joy, which I enjoyed far more than I expected to, he gives a very entertaining performance as the titular character's father. And although he sadly disappears from much of the narrative's third act, his work is appealing enough to remind me of how great he can still be when he applies himself.

Curiously, his most respectable work as of late has come almost exclusively in David O'Russell directed films (prior to Joy, he appeared in Silver Linings Playbook, where he played a very similar eccentric role, and American Hustle, where he played a very ominous mob boss).

O'Russell, for all this talent, has taken to pretty liberally quoting from De Niro's most famous collaborator, Martin Scorsese.

Especially with Joy, the sweeping camerawork, retro vibe and improvisational feel -- this is a Scorsese movie several decades late. It actually reminds me a bit of his underrated Alice Doesn't Live Here Anymore, with its dreamlike qualities and plucky heroine.

It's not everyone's cup of tea, but no one could accuse the movie of not being ambitious. Dirty Grandpa? That's another story. What attracted De Niro to this project? He has already done lowbrow comedies before. It just doesn't make any sense.

The last time I remember De Niro leading a film that had a little spark to it might have been 2001's The Score. That movie has a lot of detractors, and it was probably not the best swan song for Marlon Brando, whose last film it was. But De Niro has some nice moments opposite him and Edward Norton.

It was an interesting stage of his career because prior to his one-two punch of Analyze This and Meet the Parents, De Niro had never been a box office superstar.

His most legendary performances of the previous decades: Raging Bull, The King of Comedy, even GoodFellas, were either flops or only modest money makers. Taxi Driver and The Deer Hunter made money in the '70s, but that was a very different time.

With the exception of Cape Fear, he wasn't someone who anchored crowd-pleasing hits, and it's almost as if once he started playing in that water, he never quite wanted to get out.

And look, De Niro has earned enough accolades to do whatever he wants -- I just think he's depriving us of some potentially great late career performances for the sake of a buck.

Oscar pick-a-palooza year three: Who's the Best Supporting Actor?

This is the second in a series of of annual Oscar predictions posts featuring myself and my friend Brian Wezowicz of Too Fat 4 Skinny Jeans. Check out his blog and give it some love and in the meantime, read our take on this years Academy Award nominees.

Sylvester Stallone and Michael B. Jordan in Creed

BRIAN: That's insane that Monique hasn't made a movie since Precious! I remember having a brief conversation about that last year and recall her saying that she's basically been blacklisted in Hollywood because she didn't play the game during the lead up to her Oscar victory.

I know that change takes a long time, but this year seems particularly disappointing. With that being said, it's on to our second category.

Last year, you and I were basically in agreement on every category. This year, we're off on the first category. Let's see how we do with Supporting Actor. In a year marred by controversy, there's perhaps no better feel good story than the nomination of Sylvester Stallone. In a year with not a lot of front runners, he seems to be the one gaining the most amount of momentum going into the big show.

 Here are the nominees:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Who will win: Sylvester Stallone.

Nominated for bringing new life into a role he created 40 years ago. Stallone has long been regarded as a muscle action movie actor, but he's shown the acting chops when given the chance. From Cop Land to Rocky Balboa, he's always felt like a wannabe good actor trapped in a chemically enhanced body. I'm going with the sentimental favorite here.

Who should win: Sylvester Stallone.

This year feels like the year of lifetime achievement winners for the men. With Leo hopefully winning his long overdue award and Stallone's win, it feels like a career recognition kind of night.

Dark Horse: Mark Rylance.

Bridge of Spies came and went at the box office with almost no fanfare. I'm not 100% sold on the notoriously snooty Academy giving an award to an action star. It reminds me of Eddie Murphy being denied for Dreamgirls because of his perceived status as a comedy actor. Rylance got some early buzz for his performance as the captured Cold War spy. Plus, Spielberg movies usually take home something.

Who you got?

ADAM: This was definitely the hardest category to predict this year, with a number of terrific performances left on the outside -- chief among them Michael Keaton in Spotlight, Idris Elba in Beasts of No Nation, Bencio Del Toro in Sicario and a personal favorite of mine, Harrison Ford in The Force Awakens. I honestly think it's a travesty he's not here -- I get it, Star Wars is not typical Oscar fare, but the 1977 film was nominated for Best Picture and Alec Guiness was in the Supporting race that year for his iconic first turn as Obi Wan Kenobi. I think Ford may go down as one of the most underrated and under-appreciated actors of his era and that's a real shame.

That said, I am happy with pretty much all of these nominees, save for Christian Bale -- who gave my least favorite performance in The Big Short. His character was more smug than charming and he didn't really land with me until the film's last act. But I feel like he's rapidly filling that Leo DiCaprio bracket -- the respected actor who will be in the running every year and will eventually win because he's "due." On the other hand I was pleasantly surprised to see Tom Hardy here because despite all the raves and attention DiCaprio is getting for The Revenant (and it is well deserved) I think Hardy is the one who makes the movie work. He is a terrific antagonist, and the performance was a wonderful bookend to his brilliant brooding in my favorite movie of the year -- Mad Max: Fury Road.

Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo in Spotlight.

And yet, this is all about Sylvester Stallone. Despite his occasional buffoonery and penchant for making inflated vanity projects I have always been a huge fan of his. With all due respect to Arnold Schwarzenegger and Bruce Willis, he is my favorite of the 80s-early-90s era action stars because I always felt he was the best actor. The Rocky movies will endure as his best work because they were always pretty straight-forward character studies with the ominous 'big fight" tying them together. People maybe thought they were going to an action movie, but it was really a compelling narrative about an uncommonly kind lead character whose defining characteristic was his big heart.

The essence of what made Stallone and those movies great was on complete display in Creed, a tremendous example of how to make a great audience-pleaser. And for me, Stallone gave a really breathtaking performance that I hope he builds on in the future. It's downright shocking to see not just Rocky, but Stallone the actor, look so vulnerable. He moved me to tears in Creed, and it would be incredibly disappointing to see the culmination of his career be overlooked. It's interesting that you mentioned Eddie Murphy -- who of course has plenty of time to resuscitate his career, but after losing for Dreamgirls (which he shouldn't have) he retreated back to the safe mediocre comedies he was making before. Mickey Rourke, one of my favorite actors, has never taken on another awards caliber role after losing in 2009 for his fantastic comeback vehicle The Wrestler.

I would hate to see Stallone -- at 70 -- go back to churning out B-movies after this. I think he can finally start to show some more range and have a fascinating late career trajectory, Either way, no matter what happens, Stallone must be respected now as the great actor he always was, and won't be reduced to being a punchline.

Who will win: Sylvester Stallone

Although there is a long history of soul-crushing surprises in this category (few people predicted Eddie Murphy would lose in 2007, for instance), the stars really seem to have aligned for Stallone. He has the most emotional support behind his performance and since the movie was inexplicably snubbed in so many other categories, this could also be a way of paying tribute to a great hit film.

Who should win: Sylvester Stallone

Again, I really admired all the performances here. Particularly Hardy's. I think Mark Ruffalo is really overdue and he did some terrific work in Spotlight (although my favorite performance in the film was Keaton's), and Bridge of Spies' Mark Rylance gave a very memorable turn albeit in a role that seems tailor-made to win the Oscar. But the performance that I'll never forget is Stallone's in Creed. Again, the word "culmination" keeps coming to mind because we've all grown up with the Rocky Balboa character in its various iterations and it was as if his acting has finally grown up to with this film. Hopefully, he doesn't forget to give Ryan Coogler the credit he deserves this time. 

Dark Horse: Mark Ruffalo

Although Mark Rylance won several precursors, I'm not convinced that his film has stayed as fresh in voters' minds. I think Hardy could benefit if The Revenant just dominates the night. But I think Ruffalo has the strongest "he's due" narrative of the bunch, and although he has dipped a toe into commercial acting with the Avengers films, he's the kind of actor's actor that is made for awards like this. I think if anyone can eek out a victory over Stallone, it's him.

Oscars pick-a-palooza year three: Who's the Best Supporting Actress?

This is the first in a series of of annual Oscar predictions posts featuring myself and my friend Brian Wezowicz of Too Fat 4 Skinny Jeans. Check out his blog and give it some love and in the meantime, read our take on this years Academy Award nominees.

BRIAN: Welcome back! I can't believe we're here again. It seems like just yesterday that we were giving our picks for last year's Academy Awards. It's time once again for the greatest column in blog history... our 3rd Annual Oscar Pick-A-Palooza!

Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs

I really enjoy your incredible blog. With my movie going activity limited with two kids, your reviews make me feel like I'm actually there. Please keep it coming.

2015 was a great year for movies, but unfortunately, #OscarsSoWhite 2.0, is in full effect. I won't go into great lengths here about the absolute white washing that happened in the acting categories, but with celebs like Spike Lee, Jada Pinkett-Smith and Michael Moore already boycotting the Oscars, the Academy has a big problem on its hands that is not going away.

Sadly, we won't get to discuss the Oscars that should be. We'll focus on the Oscar nominations that we have. That's not to diminish any of the accomplishments of the people nominated, but there does seem to be a giant elephant (not) in the room this year.

Again, we'll go through major acting categories, plus director and best picture. We'll give our picks for who will win, who should win, and possible dark horses.

2015 seemed like the return of the high-quality blockbuster. From the beauty of Mad Max: Fury Road, to the epic return of the Star Wars franchise, 2015 was a great year for blockbusters. Creed showed that there's still a lot of life left in the Rocky franchise, and the box office tally of the (wildly disappointing) Jurassic World proved that audiences still enjoy a dino-sized scare.

2015 was also a great year for so-called "award" movies. Leonardo DiCaprio might finally win his long overdue Oscar for his gritty, bear wrestling role in The Revenant. And All The President's Men style procedural movies like The Big Short and Spotlight had a big impact on audiences and award voters.
With that being said, let's get to our first category: Best Supporting actress:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Who Will Win: Kate Winslet. She's won a few pre-Oscar awards and seems to be the only one with the momentum going into the big show.

Who Should Win: Kate Winslet. By all accounts, she does a phenomenal job in a shockingly overlooked Steve Jobs. I'm still shocked that this movie didn't do better at the box office.

Dark Horse: Jennifer Jason Leigh. I don't see a Tarantino movie getting shut out. Could an actor win an award from three straight Tarantino films?

Who is your Best Supporting Actress?

ADAM: Thanks for the compliments -- I know you don't post as much as me -- but I, of course, enjoy your blog too. And I agree with you that this was a strong year for films both big and small. In fact, I was disappointed when looking at next year's slate that there were fewer films that were sort of events for me on the level of a new James Bond or the return of Star Wars.

Like you said, the blockbusters this year, by-and-large were excellent. Unlike you I despised Terminator: Genisys, and like you, I thought Jurassic World was a colossal disappointment. But so many films delivered that could have been disasters from Creed to Mad Max: Fury Road to even The Force Awakens. I was really pleasantly surprised by the creativity that infused a lot of big budget movies. I have also been impressed with the more conventional awards-caliber films, although there has been no one film that has been so dominant or universally acclaimed that it towers over the contenders.

But to your earlier point, all of that feels kind of small now in the wake of #OscarsSoWhite take two. To me that's a bigger issue than one year, it's about the industry in general which is downright cowardly when it comes to colorblind casting (except for J.J. Abrams, apparently) and who only seem willing to recognize the excellence of minority performances when they are in a narrow kind of movie ("magical negroes" or "oppressed" fill in the blank) and usually only in supporting categories. Even when an African-American wins they often don't see the requisite career bump white actors do. Of the recent black winners, only Jamie Foxx appears to have maintained an A-List level of fame. Monique hasn't even made a movie since she won for Precious back in 2010.

And yet, as you said, this is the slate of nominees we have, and despite the lack of diversity, they are all mostly worthy. When I look at this year's Supporting Actress picks, I am neither bowled over or disappointed. I can't think of a performance I wanted to see there that didn't make the cut but none of these performances that I saw (I still haven't seen The Danish Girl) was very emotionally compelling to me. Although I did enjoy Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs. And I am sort of mystified by the critical adulation Jennifer Jason Leigh is getting for The Hateful Eight. It's definitely an impressive physical performance and she's a terrific actress, but she was far from the standout from that movie for me.

Michael Keaton and Rachel McAdams in Spotlight

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Will win: Alicia Vikander

Even though I haven't see The Danish Girl, and have heard mixed things about it, there is near universal acclaim for Vikander's performance. Vikander is having a breakout year for her role here and in Ex Machina. And her performance in The Danish Girl supposedly really belongs in lead (not unlike Rooney Mara's in Carol. That may push her to victory as well.

Should win: Kate Winslet

Having not seem The Danish Girl, I can't speak to Vikander's performance. I thought McAdams did fine, understated work in Spotlight, and I've said my piece on Jennifer Jason Leigh. I like Rooney Mara a lot but I feel like she was out-acted by Cate Blanchett in Carol, her performance felt very mannered, like she was playing dress up as a shy person. So by default I am going with Winslet who was likable and believable as Steve Jobs' long suffering assistant.

Dark horse: Kate Winslet

I think if Carol has been better represented in the nominations I would have said Rooney Mara, but now it seems like she -- and that film -- are fading. If there is some unexpected Spotlight sweep that could help McAdams get in there. But I think Winslet has been stealthily staying relevant in the precursor awards and this category has a long history of upsets. I think Vikander will probably win but I wouldn't be shocked at all if Winslet does.

The ten 2016 movies I'm most excited for (right now)

Liam Neeson in Silence

As Oscar season enters its home stretch we're about the enter the real doldrums as far as new movie releases are concerned. Although every year there are a couple gems before the summer movies (think the new horror classic It Follows) the first half of the year is usually a wasteland for film buffs seeking smart, original cinema.

So what is a frustrated film fan to do? Well, I have been scouring lists of release dates and upcoming projects and despite far too many superhero films, there are a number of projects worth getting excited about.

Of course, as the year goes on there will be more clarity about what is coming out and when, and the valuable film festival circuit will create real buzz around more low-key independent projects, which are often among the year's best.

With all those caveats, here are the ten 2016 films I'm most intrigued by.

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story - After the triumph of The Force Awakens, like any Star Wars fan, my appetite for more from this epic sci-fi universe is ravenous, and while this film is not a direct sequel (it's more like a sidebar preface to A New Hope). I think it's a cool concept -- how the rebels stole the plan for the Death Star -- with a lot of potential. Although director Gareth Edwards is no J.J. Abrams.

Silence - After making several blockbusters with Leonardo DiCaprio, my favorite director of all time, Martin Scorsese, returns with this mysterious personal passion project about priests facing violent opposition to their missionary zeal in Japan. I don't know what the commercial prospects for this film will be, but I love that at this stage of his career Scorsese is still taking risks outside of his comfort zone.

Hail, Caesar! - I may be in minority here but I love the Coen Brothers' sillier movies. And for their latest parody of Hollywood (they have visited this terrain before with Barton Fink) they have assembled an all-star cast, including George Clooney, Josh Brolin, Scarlett Johnansson and Channing Tatum just to name a few, to do some really broad goofy stuff in a typically gorgeous frame.

Cautiously optimistic

The Founder - Michael Keaton has been sadly snubbed this year for Best Supporting Actor for his terrific performance in Spotlight, but he may get a chance for a mea culpa with this promising (in theory) biopic about Ray Kroc, the man who turned McDonald's into a way of life. Hopefully, it will be a "warts n' all" kind of story instead of a sappy, feel-good movie. I expect Keaton to bring it in this role.

Keanu - Key and Peele take their sketch comedy genius to the big screen in this wacky sounding comedy about two nerds (played by the duo themselves) who get dragged into the criminal underworld while searching for their adorable missing cat. Their Comedy Central show only got smarter and more creative with each subsequent season, so I am psyched to see what they will do with a full-length movie.

Suicide Squad - The only superhero movie coming out this year that I am undeniably excited about (although if the Doctor Strange trailer is terrific, I could be persuaded). It's the one that feels like its premise could be refreshing (the bad guys are the good guys). It has a great cast (Margot Robbie in particular looks like a scene stealer), And while Jared Leto has huge shoes to fill as The Joker (it's now been done to perfection twice -- by Nicholson and Ledger) I am curious to see what he does with the role.

Untitled Howard Hughes Film - Warren Beatty is one of my all time favorite movie stars and he has sadly been absent from movie screens for over 15 years, and his last film was a notorious, big budget flop that nearly ruined his reputation (Town & Country). This film, about an aging Howard Hughes, has been his comeback dream project for decades, and its supposed to finally make it to the big screen this year. It could be another disaster, but it should at least be interesting.

The Nice Guys - This could be another film that turns out to be a big nothing but the early trailers had me cheering. Russell Crowe -- finally -- seems to be having fun with his rough and gruff persona as a private eye opposite a funny Ryan Gosling in this '70s-set throwback action film. I consider myself a Shane Black fan, and I'm excited to see a return to the kind of snarky cop films that made him famous (he wrote the original Lethal Weapon). This could be the sleeper hit of the summer.

Loving - One of the great, fascinating American stories finally gets the big screen treatment in this intriguing drama about the soft spoken mixed race couple from Virginia who were jailed for their relationship and whose case eventually led to the Supreme Court decision ending the ban on interracial relationships in the last remaining states that opposed it in the 60s. Starring Joel Edgerton, who seems poised for a big breakout. Could be very moving.

Ghostbusters - While I understand the reservations of hardcore fans of this franchise, and I count myself among them, I trust Paul Feig. And he has assembled a cast of mostly brilliant female comedians (I'm still not sold on Leslie Jones) to reboot the series. I'm excited that the surviving original Ghostbusters will all be involved in some capacity and I'm hopeful that this film in some way captures the cleverness of the '80s era hits.

Alan Rickman: Rest in piece and 'shoot the glass'

Alan Rickman as Hans Gruber in Die Hard

It's been surreal to see two British icons die quite unexpectedly, at the exact same age, within days of each other. First, we lost one of the greatest rock stars of all time in David Bowie and today, we've learned that iconic character actor Alan Rickman has passed away.

To a younger generation of audiences Rickman will forever be remembered for his supporting turns in the Harry Potter films and the unapologetically sappy holiday film Love Actually. 

I'm not knocking those films, but for me, I will always cherish him most of all for his dazzling turn as Hans Gruber in Die Hard, easily one of the greatest movie villains of all time, in perhaps the greatest action movie of all time.

In so many ways Rickman's work as Gruber has perfected the prototype of what we now expect of our action movie bad guys. They need to be vaguely foreign, in no way an actual physical threat to our hero and ideally, they should be funny.

There is a reason that kind of personality has become a cliche, and it's because Rickman was such a dynamite bit of brilliant fresh air that Hollywood could only replicate what he did, they never quite topped it. There have been more manic villains (The Joker) and more stoic ones (Darth Vader), but Hans Gruber was a real happening.

He saunters into Die Hard with a dry wit, but more importantly real brains. His entire posture is a ruse, he is essentially an elegant bank robber, and had his hot headed henchman not been so overconfident that they could single-handedly take out NYPD officer John McClane (a.k.a. Bruce Willis) he might have gotten away with his scheme.

The cat and mouse game between the Willis character and Rickman's of course is the narrative thrust of the movie, and it leads to a tension filled showdown where McClane stumbles upon Gruber by accident and Rickman must instantly morph into the guise of a frightened hostage.

Gotta love that Gruber

It's a tour de force acting wise, that raises the game of the usually laconic Willis. Eventually it leads to arguably the most memorable line of Rickman's career --"shoot the glass" -- which he orders one of his henchman to do, rendering Willis' bare feet into a bloody pulp.

What makes his performance so great is that he is not some stupid lightweight but he is also not a brawny bruiser either. He is stylish, suave and sophisticated. He speaks several languages. He has no patience for McClane, but he is not going to try to beat him in a straight up fight. It's Bruce Willis movie after-all. But he still manages to be totally formidable.

I once had the pleasure of attending a midnight screening of Die Hard, packed with film geeks, where Rickman made a personal appearance. He was charming and affable, even signing an audience member's Die Hard VHS set even when we asked by the theater to specifically not do that type of thing.

A highlight from that screening: Someone from the crowd asking him an inane question about some dialogue he says in the movie that is hard to understand.

Rickman gave a deep, sarcastic sigh and in that great baritone of his he asked rhetorically, "Who cares." It got a huge laugh and totally felt appropriate and honest. I will never forget that moment and, of course, movie fans everywhere will never forget Alan Rickman.

David Bowie brought his unique charisma to film world, too

David Bowie in The Man Who Fell to Earth

David Bowie, who died yesterday at the age of just 69, was one of my three favorite musical artists of all time.

In my personal pantheon, he, Prince and Michael Jackson tower above all others.

And like those two iconoclastic performers, Bowie also made forays into film acting, with mixed results.

Bowie's work as an actor understandably will never be held in the same esteem as his colossal influence as a rock star and fashion icon, but he did essay some very memorable performances, that effectively played off of his other-worldly persona.

Although Bowie was almost always unmistakably Bowie, he did show an ability to occasionally immerse himself almost totally in a role. For instance, in the underrated biopic Basquiat, he plays a totally credible Andy Warhol opposite Jeffrey Wright's performance as the doomed artist of the title. He also did a terrific late career turn as the mercurial Nicola Tesla in Christoper Nolan's mind-bender The Prestige.

Bowie in Twin Peaks: Fire Walk With Me

His presence doesn't distract in Martin Scorsese's epic Biblical film The Last Temptation of Christ either, where the director used him for stunt casting as Pontius Pilate.

Director David Lynch also utilized Bowie's stature as icon in his oddball Twin Peaks: Fire Walk With Me. Although Bowie has virtually no dialogue as the damaged FBI agent Philip Jeffries.

One of his meatier parts was in the hyper-stylized 1983 vampire film The Hunger, where his performance as a rapidly aging bloodsucker almost upstages some seriously sexy softcore scenes featuring Catherine Deneuve and Susan Sarandon.

I need to give his performance in the war film Merry Christmas, Mr. Lawrence another look. Meanwhile, as a hardcore Bowie fan, I know this is blasphemy, but I was never as enamored with Labyrinth as lot of other people, although I am willing to give it another chance. I think it falls under the umbrella of films you can probably only appreciate if you grew up watching them as a child.

For my money the best Bowie film performance can be found in the 1975 sci-fi film The Man Who Fell to Earth. The extremely surreal and sexually explicit film is a trippy masterpiece from director Nicolas Roeg, who pioneered multi-layered editing in movies like Don't Look Now in the 1970s.

Bowie plays an alien who arrives on Earth for reasons that are eventually revealed to us. He's left a planet in desperate need of water and his family is literally wasting away while awaiting his return. Bowie -- through a consciously opaque narrative -- becomes a mysterious business impresario who morphs into a superstar on his new planet by introducing new technologies that capture the public's imagination.

However, the Bowie character slowly becomes addicted to the Earth-bound vices of alcohol and television, and is subjected to violent experimentation from government authorities. The ending, which I won't spoil, is devastating and surreal. And while Bowie may not have been a natural actor, he imbues the alien with the right mix of off-kilter edge and serene innocence.

It helps that Bowie was on the tail of end of a period of heavy drug use. He may never have been more gaunt and ethereal looking. But he, and the unconventional movie itself, are sensational.

'Sicario' should have made my top 10 of 2015, it's dynamite stuff

The drug cartel action drama Sicario stands as further proof that Denis Villeneuve deserves to be ranked among the most exciting and promising new directors out there right now.

He makes muscular, ambitious films that aren't afraid to aim to be epic. And while I liked Sicario a little less than his eye-opening Prisoners from 2013, it's definitely the best film I've seen on the subject matter since 2000's Traffic.

Ironically, that film too starred the undervalued Benicio Del Toro in a charismatic and compelling supporting role that winds up being the movie's most emotionally affecting when all is said and done.

Sicario takes a risk by making its hero and audience surrogate -- played very well by Emily Blunt -- several steps behind the narrative. While she is tough and capable, she is essentially a pawn in a much larger scheme involving shadowy government operatives who are bending the law to bring down brutal drug lords.

Because she spends much of the movie confused and earnestly trying to find some sort of morality in what she is doing, the film may not be as accessible to a lot of viewers. But once you embrace the fact that the film is trying to convey both the mayhem and futility of the U.S.-Mexico drug war, I suspect you'll appreciate it more.

Benicio Del Toro in Sicario

If nothing else you'll be drawn in by the cinematography -- along with the Mad Max: Fury Road, Beasts of No Nation and The Revenant, this is the most beautiful looking film I've seen this year. The great Roger Deakins deserves to win a long-overdue Academy Award for this one. The score is also a slow-cooking masterpiece, building upon the layers of ominous dread that we feel in nearly every scene.

And Villeneuve is a director who really knows how to stage an action scene that stings, and sticks with you. It's so hard for violence to be shocking anymore in film. But it is here.

Sicario has picked a subject that's not particularly sexy these days, most highbrow thrillers navigate the equally murky world of international terrorism. But Sicario feels refreshing because it's evoking a very specific region and cultural flavor that feels relevant and authentic.

Just as impressive: although I believe Sicario does in the end have a point of view, it doesn't speechify or spoon-feed audiences its politics. While we are meant to admire Blunt's professionalism and dedication to process, we also see her naivete, and why the more shades-of-grey tactics of a smug, top ranking official -- played to perfection by another underrated actor, Josh Brolin -- may actually be for the best.

Still, the beating heart of this film is Del Toro's performance. He's one of the great actors of his generation who has had far too few roles up to his standards. This is a welcome comeback role for him that in a less competitive year would be a shoo-in for a Best Supporting Actor nomination.

Sicario did OK business when it came out in September, but it deserves to build a following.