It's now time for the big award (unless I forgot another category)... Best Picture. You and I are both on record as not liking the "up to 10" movie rule of this award.
I don't know what the cut off is, but there are a number of movies that could have fit into those final three spots. Creed revitalized the Rocky franchise, while Star Wars was nothing short of breathtaking.
Personally, I would have enjoyed seeing Inside Out crack the top ten. I think it's Pixar's best movie in years, and a stunning piece of film making. I know it's a lock to win the best animated movie, but if there was ever a year in which an animated movie could stand a chance to win Best Picture, I think it's this one. I enjoyed it that much.
Of the seven nominated, I think there's a frontrunner (The Revenant), a close second (Mad Max: Fury Road), and a bunch of others that have a decent chance. Of the three years we've been doing this, I'm the least sure in my pick.
Here are the nominees:
BEST PICTURE
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight
Who Will Win: The Revenant. I could see a split director/best picture, where The Revenant wins best picture, and George Miller wins director and vice versa. I think The Revenant has the most momentum going in to the big night. I think it squeaks out a win.
Who Should Win: Mad Max: Fury Road. It's my #3 and your #1 movie of the year, and I could have easily placed it at #1. It took a 30+ year old franchise and made it fresh and exciting. There isn't an uninteresting frame in the entire film. Plus, Hollywood loves big epic spectacles, and this certainly fits the bill.
Dark Horse: The Big Short. I can't quite put my finger on it, but I have a feeling about this movie. It's funny, did well at the box office, and has a ton of stars in it. I can't see it getting shut out. I could also have gone with The Martian, but with Ridley Scott getting shut out in the directing category, I don't like its chances.
So that's it for me. Who takes home your big prize?
In a side note... thanks for doing this again. I really enjoy talking movies, and I love your blog. You have a great way of making your readers feel like they're in the theater with you. I would like to try to do this more often. I loved talking Ghostbusters with you (even though I'm still on the outs with it... Ha!)
ADAM: Dude, this is hard. #That'sWhatSheSaid. This has got to be the most difficult to predict Oscar race I've seen in years. Now that I've caught up and seen all the films nominated, I do think there are a few you can scratch off right off the bat.
I think you can eliminate The Martian next because its director, Ridley Scott, wasn't even nominated. Although in the past that benefitted Argo, I think that was a unique circumstance where Hollywood was devastated for poor multi-millionaire Ben Affleck, and wanted to a do mea culpa.
Even though Scott is a living legend, and The Martian may be his biggest crossover success, I don't sense the same aggrieved feeling for him. Director and Best Picture may still split this year, but I doubt a film will win whose director isn't even in the mix.
Sidebar -- I hate to sound like broken record, but in such a wide field Creed, Straight Outta Compton and The Force Awakens should of and could have taken the spots occupied by Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn and maybe even Room, although that film made my top 10.
So I think this usually competitive Oscar race is actually down to four movies. There's Spotlight, which everyone loves but very few people are going to see, Mad Max which also enjoys universal acclaim but is, at the end of the day, an action film, The Revenant, which is really hot right now but also, technically, the nominee with the weakest reviews and The Big Short, which is sort of in the middle of the pack in terms of being an audience pleaser and a more traditional Oscar-baity movie.
Will win: Spotlight
Actors are the biggest branch of Oscar voters and I don't see them going for Mad Max, which despite its epic performances is viewed more as a technical achievement. And despite how hot The Revenant is, I see rewarding that film with Best Actor instead. Between The Big Short and Spotlight I think it's really close, and the PGA win gives Adam McKay's film more momentum, but I am kind of convinced that the more polished film will win here. Although I could be totally off base.
Should win: Mad Max Fury Road
I've said it before and I'll say it again. My favorite film of the year by a pretty wide margin. I could watch it almost anytime. I am still in awe that they pulled it off and I'm thrilled that it's here. Should it win Best Picture it would go down as the COOLEST winner since perhaps No Country for Old Men or perhaps The Godfather Part II prior to that. But the coolest movies never win. Apocalypse Now lost. Pulp Fiction lost. Star Wars lost. I could on and on.
Dark Horse: The Big Short
I think I opted for Spotlight over this one because I simply thought it was the better film. The Big Short was a little too pleased with its own cleverness at times and I think its overall premise was inherently problematic, whereas Spotlight, in the least showy way possible, presented heroes you could root for without reservations and told a sensitive story with refreshing restraint. But it's not been winning many of the big awards and seems to have already peaked at the box office. If the voters want to go more populist, this seems to be the best choice.
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