BRIAN: Welcome back! I can't believe we're here again. It seems like just yesterday that we were giving our picks for last year's Academy Awards. It's time once again for the greatest column in blog history... our 3rd Annual Oscar Pick-A-Palooza!
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| Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs |
2015 was a great year for movies, but unfortunately, #OscarsSoWhite 2.0, is in full effect. I won't go into great lengths here about the absolute white washing that happened in the acting categories, but with celebs like Spike Lee, Jada Pinkett-Smith and Michael Moore already boycotting the Oscars, the Academy has a big problem on its hands that is not going away.
Sadly, we won't get to discuss the Oscars that should be. We'll focus on the Oscar nominations that we have. That's not to diminish any of the accomplishments of the people nominated, but there does seem to be a giant elephant (not) in the room this year.
Again, we'll go through major acting categories, plus director and best picture. We'll give our picks for who will win, who should win, and possible dark horses.
2015 seemed like the return of the high-quality blockbuster. From the beauty of Mad Max: Fury Road, to the epic return of the Star Wars franchise, 2015 was a great year for blockbusters. Creed showed that there's still a lot of life left in the Rocky franchise, and the box office tally of the (wildly disappointing) Jurassic World proved that audiences still enjoy a dino-sized scare.
2015 was also a great year for so-called "award" movies. Leonardo DiCaprio might finally win his long overdue Oscar for his gritty, bear wrestling role in The Revenant. And All The President's Men style procedural movies like The Big Short and Spotlight had a big impact on audiences and award voters.
With that being said, let's get to our first category: Best Supporting actress:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Who Will Win: Kate Winslet. She's won a few pre-Oscar awards and seems to be the only one with the momentum going into the big show.
Who Should Win: Kate Winslet. By all accounts, she does a phenomenal job in a shockingly overlooked Steve Jobs. I'm still shocked that this movie didn't do better at the box office.
Dark Horse: Jennifer Jason Leigh. I don't see a Tarantino movie getting shut out. Could an actor win an award from three straight Tarantino films?
Who is your Best Supporting Actress?
ADAM: Thanks for the compliments -- I know you don't post as much as me -- but I, of course, enjoy your blog too. And I agree with you that this was a strong year for films both big and small. In fact, I was disappointed when looking at next year's slate that there were fewer films that were sort of events for me on the level of a new James Bond or the return of Star Wars.
Like you said, the blockbusters this year, by-and-large were excellent. Unlike you I despised Terminator: Genisys, and like you, I thought Jurassic World was a colossal disappointment. But so many films delivered that could have been disasters from Creed to Mad Max: Fury Road to even The Force Awakens. I was really pleasantly surprised by the creativity that infused a lot of big budget movies. I have also been impressed with the more conventional awards-caliber films, although there has been no one film that has been so dominant or universally acclaimed that it towers over the contenders.
But to your earlier point, all of that feels kind of small now in the wake of #OscarsSoWhite take two. To me that's a bigger issue than one year, it's about the industry in general which is downright cowardly when it comes to colorblind casting (except for J.J. Abrams, apparently) and who only seem willing to recognize the excellence of minority performances when they are in a narrow kind of movie ("magical negroes" or "oppressed" fill in the blank) and usually only in supporting categories. Even when an African-American wins they often don't see the requisite career bump white actors do. Of the recent black winners, only Jamie Foxx appears to have maintained an A-List level of fame. Monique hasn't even made a movie since she won for Precious back in 2010.
And yet, as you said, this is the slate of nominees we have, and despite the lack of diversity, they are all mostly worthy. When I look at this year's Supporting Actress picks, I am neither bowled over or disappointed. I can't think of a performance I wanted to see there that didn't make the cut but none of these performances that I saw (I still haven't seen The Danish Girl) was very emotionally compelling to me. Although I did enjoy Kate Winslet in Steve Jobs. And I am sort of mystified by the critical adulation Jennifer Jason Leigh is getting for The Hateful Eight. It's definitely an impressive physical performance and she's a terrific actress, but she was far from the standout from that movie for me.
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| Michael Keaton and Rachel McAdams in Spotlight |
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Will win: Alicia Vikander
Even though I haven't see The Danish Girl, and have heard mixed things about it, there is near universal acclaim for Vikander's performance. Vikander is having a breakout year for her role here and in Ex Machina. And her performance in The Danish Girl supposedly really belongs in lead (not unlike Rooney Mara's in Carol. That may push her to victory as well.
Should win: Kate Winslet
Having not seem The Danish Girl, I can't speak to Vikander's performance. I thought McAdams did fine, understated work in Spotlight, and I've said my piece on Jennifer Jason Leigh. I like Rooney Mara a lot but I feel like she was out-acted by Cate Blanchett in Carol, her performance felt very mannered, like she was playing dress up as a shy person. So by default I am going with Winslet who was likable and believable as Steve Jobs' long suffering assistant.
Dark horse: Kate Winslet
I think if Carol has been better represented in the nominations I would have said Rooney Mara, but now it seems like she -- and that film -- are fading. If there is some unexpected Spotlight sweep that could help McAdams get in there. But I think Winslet has been stealthily staying relevant in the precursor awards and this category has a long history of upsets. I think Vikander will probably win but I wouldn't be shocked at all if Winslet does.
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