Oscar pick-a-palooza year three: Who's the Best Supporting Actor?

This is the second in a series of of annual Oscar predictions posts featuring myself and my friend Brian Wezowicz of Too Fat 4 Skinny Jeans. Check out his blog and give it some love and in the meantime, read our take on this years Academy Award nominees.

Sylvester Stallone and Michael B. Jordan in Creed

BRIAN: That's insane that Monique hasn't made a movie since Precious! I remember having a brief conversation about that last year and recall her saying that she's basically been blacklisted in Hollywood because she didn't play the game during the lead up to her Oscar victory.

I know that change takes a long time, but this year seems particularly disappointing. With that being said, it's on to our second category.

Last year, you and I were basically in agreement on every category. This year, we're off on the first category. Let's see how we do with Supporting Actor. In a year marred by controversy, there's perhaps no better feel good story than the nomination of Sylvester Stallone. In a year with not a lot of front runners, he seems to be the one gaining the most amount of momentum going into the big show.

 Here are the nominees:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Who will win: Sylvester Stallone.

Nominated for bringing new life into a role he created 40 years ago. Stallone has long been regarded as a muscle action movie actor, but he's shown the acting chops when given the chance. From Cop Land to Rocky Balboa, he's always felt like a wannabe good actor trapped in a chemically enhanced body. I'm going with the sentimental favorite here.

Who should win: Sylvester Stallone.

This year feels like the year of lifetime achievement winners for the men. With Leo hopefully winning his long overdue award and Stallone's win, it feels like a career recognition kind of night.

Dark Horse: Mark Rylance.

Bridge of Spies came and went at the box office with almost no fanfare. I'm not 100% sold on the notoriously snooty Academy giving an award to an action star. It reminds me of Eddie Murphy being denied for Dreamgirls because of his perceived status as a comedy actor. Rylance got some early buzz for his performance as the captured Cold War spy. Plus, Spielberg movies usually take home something.

Who you got?

ADAM: This was definitely the hardest category to predict this year, with a number of terrific performances left on the outside -- chief among them Michael Keaton in Spotlight, Idris Elba in Beasts of No Nation, Bencio Del Toro in Sicario and a personal favorite of mine, Harrison Ford in The Force Awakens. I honestly think it's a travesty he's not here -- I get it, Star Wars is not typical Oscar fare, but the 1977 film was nominated for Best Picture and Alec Guiness was in the Supporting race that year for his iconic first turn as Obi Wan Kenobi. I think Ford may go down as one of the most underrated and under-appreciated actors of his era and that's a real shame.

That said, I am happy with pretty much all of these nominees, save for Christian Bale -- who gave my least favorite performance in The Big Short. His character was more smug than charming and he didn't really land with me until the film's last act. But I feel like he's rapidly filling that Leo DiCaprio bracket -- the respected actor who will be in the running every year and will eventually win because he's "due." On the other hand I was pleasantly surprised to see Tom Hardy here because despite all the raves and attention DiCaprio is getting for The Revenant (and it is well deserved) I think Hardy is the one who makes the movie work. He is a terrific antagonist, and the performance was a wonderful bookend to his brilliant brooding in my favorite movie of the year -- Mad Max: Fury Road.

Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo in Spotlight.

And yet, this is all about Sylvester Stallone. Despite his occasional buffoonery and penchant for making inflated vanity projects I have always been a huge fan of his. With all due respect to Arnold Schwarzenegger and Bruce Willis, he is my favorite of the 80s-early-90s era action stars because I always felt he was the best actor. The Rocky movies will endure as his best work because they were always pretty straight-forward character studies with the ominous 'big fight" tying them together. People maybe thought they were going to an action movie, but it was really a compelling narrative about an uncommonly kind lead character whose defining characteristic was his big heart.

The essence of what made Stallone and those movies great was on complete display in Creed, a tremendous example of how to make a great audience-pleaser. And for me, Stallone gave a really breathtaking performance that I hope he builds on in the future. It's downright shocking to see not just Rocky, but Stallone the actor, look so vulnerable. He moved me to tears in Creed, and it would be incredibly disappointing to see the culmination of his career be overlooked. It's interesting that you mentioned Eddie Murphy -- who of course has plenty of time to resuscitate his career, but after losing for Dreamgirls (which he shouldn't have) he retreated back to the safe mediocre comedies he was making before. Mickey Rourke, one of my favorite actors, has never taken on another awards caliber role after losing in 2009 for his fantastic comeback vehicle The Wrestler.

I would hate to see Stallone -- at 70 -- go back to churning out B-movies after this. I think he can finally start to show some more range and have a fascinating late career trajectory, Either way, no matter what happens, Stallone must be respected now as the great actor he always was, and won't be reduced to being a punchline.

Who will win: Sylvester Stallone

Although there is a long history of soul-crushing surprises in this category (few people predicted Eddie Murphy would lose in 2007, for instance), the stars really seem to have aligned for Stallone. He has the most emotional support behind his performance and since the movie was inexplicably snubbed in so many other categories, this could also be a way of paying tribute to a great hit film.

Who should win: Sylvester Stallone

Again, I really admired all the performances here. Particularly Hardy's. I think Mark Ruffalo is really overdue and he did some terrific work in Spotlight (although my favorite performance in the film was Keaton's), and Bridge of Spies' Mark Rylance gave a very memorable turn albeit in a role that seems tailor-made to win the Oscar. But the performance that I'll never forget is Stallone's in Creed. Again, the word "culmination" keeps coming to mind because we've all grown up with the Rocky Balboa character in its various iterations and it was as if his acting has finally grown up to with this film. Hopefully, he doesn't forget to give Ryan Coogler the credit he deserves this time. 

Dark Horse: Mark Ruffalo

Although Mark Rylance won several precursors, I'm not convinced that his film has stayed as fresh in voters' minds. I think Hardy could benefit if The Revenant just dominates the night. But I think Ruffalo has the strongest "he's due" narrative of the bunch, and although he has dipped a toe into commercial acting with the Avengers films, he's the kind of actor's actor that is made for awards like this. I think if anyone can eek out a victory over Stallone, it's him.