Check out our previous posts on the Best Supporting Actress race here, Best Supporting Actor here, Best Actor here, Best Actress here and Best Director here.
Brian: It's time to make our picks for the big prize... Best Picture.
If you look at the list, you'll see a group of solid to spectacular films that represent just how good of a year (for films) that 2016 was. In my opinion, there don't appear to be any notable snubs. There was some grumbling about Deadpool being left off the list, but I think you and I both agree that it wasn't nearly as good of a film that people made it out to be. Sure, it was funny and enjoyable, but it was done better by Ant-Man and doesn't deserve to be anywhere near this list.
Another surprise, in my opinion, was Hidden Figures. When i first saw the trailer for this film, it seemed like it would be similar in tone to your typical Disney feel-good "based on a true story" film.
However, as you mentioned in your review, it managed to rise above the typical feel good story and stand on its own merits.
If you look at the rest of the list, you'll see a good mix of films that managed to (in most cases) be both critical and commercial hits. With that being said, I think it boils down to a two horse race between the Los Angeles homage, La La Land, and the generational masterpiece, Moonlight. If past Oscars are any implication, I think La La Land will take home the top prize. Hollywood loves to pat itself on the back, and it will be no different this time.
Here are the nominees:
Best Picture:
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Will Win: La La Land. This film is both a huge commercial and critical hit. Throw in the Hollywood-centric theme and it should be a slam dunk.
Should Win: Moonlight. As you said in your review, Moonlight is a beautifully nuanced coming-of-age story. It's a masterpiece that will stand the test of time.
Dark Horse: I can't really see any of these other films competing, but if I had to make a guess, I would say Manchester By The Sea or Fences. Two films that are masterfully crafted and deliver stunning acting showcases for their stars.
I want to take the time to thank you for joining me again. I look forward to this exchange every year. We should do something special for the 5th annual Oscar picks post next year!
Who takes home your top prize?
 |
| Manchester By the Sea |
I am actually pretty happy with this group -- of course, I resent that Hollywood is scared of less obviously Oscar-ish fare like Green Room or The Witch. I will never stop singing the praises of 20th Century Women, a moving heartfelt movie that just touched me at the right time. Rogue One was a true epic, but if The Force Awakens didn't make it, I don't think this Star Wars side story would have.
I actually am thrilled to see Hidden Figures here. Yes, it's a crowd pleaser -- but for once, it's a worthy one. The movie was smart, slyly sophisticated and it tells a truly remarkable story that deserved a big screen homage. I'm actually not surprised it's here because it was one of the few critical hits to score commercially too. And had it earned more nominations, I could actually see it being one of the bigger threats to La La Land here, which has just buried its competition.
I've seen all the nominees except Lion (which I have heard mostly positive things about) and the Mel Gibson rehabilitation project Hacksaw Ridge. And my final answer is ... predictably, identical to yours.
Will win: La La Land. Like any big fat hit that eats up all the press and buzz, there has been an anti-La La Land storm brewing. The SNL sketch about cops interrogating a suspect for not loving it was a spot on early symptom of the backlash culture we live in now.
The one criticism I agree with -- that the light as air movie feels out of step with the bitterly contentious times we are all experiencing -- doesn't feel big enough to torpedo it. And as entertainment, as a production, the movie is virtually peerless. Movies don't get 14 nominations and NOT win. If it doesn't it'll be the biggest upset since Avatar lost to The Hurt Locker.
Should win: Moonlight. I think there are several really great films here. Hell or High Water is a masterpiece. As is Fences. I admire the hell out of Arrival, La La Land, Hidden Figures and Manchester by the Sea. But the movie that just keeps sticking in my mind, that really felt like a glimpse into the future of filmmaking -- it was Moonlight.
I only saw it once. It's not an easy movie to explain or simplify (which is perhaps why it hasn't caught on at the box office), but it was simply the most rewarding movie-going experience I had all year.
Dark horse: I wanna say Hidden Figures, because there are no caveats to liking it. Moonlight has the LGBT element, which could turn off prejudiced, older Oscar voters (see Brokeback Mountain's snub in 2006), La La Land has the issues I mentioned above.
But Manchester By Sea -- despite the issues Casey Affleck has -- enjoys a very big fanbase, and of all the other nominees not named Moonlight or La La Land, it's the one that I could see coming out of nowhere to win a lot of major awards, including this one.
See you next year Brian -- and hopefully in person, sooner!
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