5th Annual Oscar pick-a-palooza: Who is the Best Actress of 2017?

Ingrid Goes West

And here is yet another installment of my ongoing series of Oscar predictions/opinions alongside Too Fat 4 Skinny Jeans blogger Brian Wezowicz. You can check out our takes on this year's supporting races here and here. And now we're moving on to the big guns -- Best Actress -- we join our previous conversation, in progress...

Brian: Great call on Harrison Ford in Blade Runner 2049! I really enjoyed his return to the character, and am sad he didn't get more recognition (also that 2049 wasn't more successful). I may have misspoken when I said "over the top" in regards to Willem Dafoe. I would probably only classify a Nic Cage or John Travolta as consistently over the top in their performances.

I just feel that Dafoe has become synonymous with a certain intensity or craziness in his recent performances. Maybe I'm wrong... I dunno. Maybe I'm just thinking about this Snicker's commercial.

Anyway, on to our next category. Best Actress. I feel like, for the most part, the Academy got this category right without any glaring snubs. That being said, I feel like 2017 didn't have a ton of great leading performances by women. I could be wrong, but I feel like there were meatier roles were in the supporting category. That's not to take away from these fine performances, but I'm not really able to recall many other strong leading actress performances. I also feel like this one basically comes down to two performances... Frances McDormand and Saorise Ronan.

Here are the nominees:

Lead Actress:
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Will Win: Frances McDormand. I know you didn't rank this film as high as some other critics, but there's no denying that McDormand gave a great performance in this one... perhaps her best since Fargo. She's always delivers and her performance in Three Billboards is no different. I think she takes home her second acting Oscar on the big night.

Should Win: I'm going to go with McDormand here as well. I know she's already won an Oscar before, which could hurt her. But I think the pre-Oscar awards going her way (including the SAG and Golden Globe) makes her the front runner. I would like to see Saorise Ronan win for her wonderful performance in Lady Bird.

Snub/Surprise: Like I said above, I'm not sure there's another leading performance out there that would push one of these five out (which would also qualify as my biggest surprise). You could argue that Jessica Chastain could sneak in for Molly's Game, but I'm not surprised she was left out. If I had to pick a snub, I thought that maybe Gal Gadot would be a crowd favorite/big budget performance that could make her way in. I don't think that she necessarily deserves a nomination, but the film made a ton of cash and she's literally the only good thing about the DC Cinematic Universe.

Who ya got?

Adam: I am pretty much in complete agreement with you on this one -- I feel like of all the major acting categories, this was the one where the five nominees were the closest to a forgone conclusion. That doesn't mean it's not strong group, but there weren't a lot of sixth or seventh options creeping in.

Although I do think there were a couple outside-the-box options that would have been interesting, but I'll get to that in a second.

Will win: Frances McDormand. This one feels less close than it should, with only Saoirse Ronan (who at 23 is already on her third nomination!) looking like anything close to a real threat. McDormand has always been great, and while it was nice to see her anchoring a movie again after years of strong supporting turns, I have mixed feelings about the film and her performance -- it doesn't wear well. She sort of did the kind of no-nonsense tough-as-nails thing she's done before but her character's motivations and actions are often muddled and unjustified by the film, in a way that makes this feel like one of those wins that doesn't feel totally earned.

Should win: I have a tougher time with this one. I actually probably enjoyed the Meryl Streep performance the most of all of these, it was one of the most finely calibrated and subtle of her Oscar roles of late, but she just won recently for the lackluster Iron Lady, so she has no chance here. Sally Hawkins was lovely and luminous but I don't see her winning for her mute role in The Shape of Water. I think Margot Robbie deserves a lot of credit for her physical performance as Tonya Harding, but I guess I would be happier to see Saoirse Ronan win for Lady Bird because she is just so funny and refreshing in it.

Snub/Surprise: While it never was gonna happen, I actually think Aubrey Plaza deserved some awards love and consideration for her whacked out turn in the dark comedy Ingrid Goes West. I also thought if Vicky Krieps wasn't such an unknown she would have been a totally valid contender for her strong turn opposite Daniel Day-Lewis in his swan song Phantom Thread. I thought Gal Gadot gave a great movie star performance but maybe not quite right for an Oscar, although I'm all for shaking up what we have come to consider an 'Oscar role' since what she did is arguably just as difficult as more traditional dramatic roles.