This part two of my ongoing Oscar predictions conversation with Too Fat 4 Skinny Jeans' Brian Wezowicz. We're picking up from where we left off on Best Supporting Actress.
Brian: I think you can absolutely throw Steve McQueen's Mangrove in there. If everything is going straight to TV, aren't they all television films?
Moving on... next up is supporting actor. Another head scratcher in this slate of nominees. We have the two de facto leads of Judas And The Black Messiah competing against each other in the supporting category. This was another WTF move by the academy. I get putting Daniel Kaluuya in this category. He was the best part of the so-so Messiah, albeit in a role that you and I both agree could have used a little more screen time or backstory. But to also nominate Lakeith Stanfield, who in my opinion was more of a lead character in that movie, was confusing. He's also just good, but not really that great in the film.
I think there were some other actors that could have made this list over him. I do love that Paul Raci made it into the final 5 in this category. He was one of the best parts of the fantastic Sound Of Metal.
Sacha Baron Cohen had the showiest role in The Trial Of The Chicago 7, even if he was a little too over the top at times. Leslie Odom Jr. was also phenomenal as Sam Cooke in One Night In Miami.
Overall, I'd say this is a pretty solid group of nominees, with one misstep.
Here are the nominees:
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”)
Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
Leslie Odom Jr. (“One Night in Miami”)
Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”)
Lakeith Stanfield (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
Will Win: Kaluuya. Like I said, he's the best part of the somewhat disappointing Judas And The Black Messiah. He's been killing it for years, so it'll be nice to see him get some critical recognition, even if it should have already happened for Get Out.
Should Win: Kaluuya or Raci. I'll be happy if either of these guys walk away with the Oscar. I had never really heard of Paul Raci before, but I definitely hope to see more of him going forward. I hope he has a post-Oscar nominated career similar to Mark Rylance, where he shows up in meaty supporting roles in prestige movies.
Snubs: The biggest one for me would have to be Chadwick Boseman for his role as the leader (both physical and spiritual) of Da 5 Bloods. I know he's probably going to win for his movie stealing performance in Ma Rainey, but I was hoping for a double nomination for the gone-too-soon actor. The bigger crime, which we'll get to later, was Delroy Lindo, but Boseman was almost as critical to the quality of that movie.
Who is your best supporting actor?
Adam: I pretty much agree with everything you said. Every year there's always a left field nominee, and usually in the supporting categories and this year's WTF is definitely LaKeith Stanfield. His performance is actually part of what didn't work for me in that film and while Daniel Kaluuya was great I feel like he didn't get enough screen-time to give a fully realized portrait of Fred Hampton. Still, this is a mostly unassailable group and like you I am thrilled to see Paul Raci make the cut for his incredibly moving work in Sound of Metal.
Will win: Daniel Kaluuya. Sometimes these things are just all about momentum and I feel like he has it. right now. A couple months ago I would have said Leslie Odom,Jr. but I feel like his film peaked early and most people are just now embracing/seeing Judas and the Black Messiah. I actually think he made a strong case for winning back in 2017 for Get Out and should have been nominated for the following year's Widows. I don't love the movie but it's hard to knock his performance in it.
Should Win: Paul Raci. I will say Sacha Baron Cohen was probably my favorite part of The Trial of the Chicago 7, a movie whose over-the-top earnestness irked me throughout. It's great that he's finally getting recognized for his acting, not just his comic chops. I think Kaluuya is such a great young actor and is deserving enough here. Same goes for Leslie Odom Jr, who was also fantastic in One Night from Miami. But the Raci performance was just haunting and so real. He won't win, but it was a stunning, unforgettable work.
Snubs: Bill Murray. For me this one hurts. After years of some just ok movies, he came roaring back with his best turn in years in Sofia Coppola's underrated and bittersweet On the Rocks and I was really hoping he'd be recognized here. Now, I fear he'll be one of those actors who never got the Oscar that we'll be kicking ourselves about years later (think Peter Sellers). I also think Chadwick Boseman could easily have been recognized here too for his stellar work in Da 5 Bloods. That was a case of note perfect casting and symbolism. I think he's had the most incredible posthumous streak of performances of anyone since James Dean.
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