This is the latest installment of my annual ongoing Oscar prediction conversation with Too Fat 4 Skinny Jeans' Brian Wezowicz. Check out our takes on Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting actress here and here...
BRIAN: Moving on to the Best Actress category, I think the nominees in this category played out as expected. I think the Academy, for the most part, got this category right. For me, I think it's a 1-2 horse race between the heavy favorite Francis McDormand vs. Viola Davis in Ma Rainey (filmed in Pittsburgh!). Both were excellent in almost polar opposites in terms of their character's personalities. McDormand gave a beautiful, understated performance in Nomadland as a woman hitting the road and figuring out her life after the plant in her town closed up shop. What I loved about that movie and her performance is that there was beauty in its simplicity.
You could almost watch Nomadland as a silent art installation and still come away moved. On the other hand, Davis' performance shined in the bigness of Ma Rainey's personality. From her singing, to the way she conducts herself in the studio, her character feels lived in and timeless.
The other nominees are kind of here for the prestige of having been nominated, though Andra Day did pick up a Golden Globe for her performance as Billie Holiday, so we'll see. It's a shame that Vanessa Kirby's raw performance of a mother dealing with loss in Pieces Of Woman is overshadowed by its connection to Shia Labeouf's toxicity because she delivers a hell of a performance.
Carrie Mulligan is also the best part of the up-and-down Promising Young Woman, though there is some chatter about her gaining momentum. It would be a shame if she wins over the big 2 because you and I both agree that all of the pieces in that movie didn't quite fit together perfectly.
Here's the nominees:
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)
Andra Day (“The United States v. Billie Holiday”)
Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”)
Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”)
Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”)
Will Win: Frances McDormand, though I think it's closer than we expect. She's already won two Oscars for leading roles. Can she pull off a third? I'd love to see Viola Davis finally get recognized for a leading performance.
Should Win: Either of the two that I mentioned before are equally deserving to take home the top prize.
Snubs: I'm drawing a blank here, but I've seen Zendaya's name thrown around as being snubbed for Malcolm & Marie, but I haven't seen that movie and can't speak on her performance. I loved Cristin Milioti in Palm Springs and it would have been a nice surprise nomination, but I'm not really coming up with too many snubs? Who would get left off this list to make room for someone else?
Who is your best actress?
ADAM: I agree with you on the slate of nominees feeling like a forgone conclusion but I see this race as way more wide open. Frances McDormand was fantastic in Nomadland, I'd argue far better than in her showier turn in Three Billboards which won her Best Actress just three years ago. This would be her third Best Actress trophy and second in just four years and so something tells me they'll want to spread the wealth around. As for Viola Davis, she is now Oscar royalty as the most nominated black actress in history, but I feel like as strong as she is in Ma Rainey (it's named after her after all) the Chadwick Boseman performance really steals the show and I don't think support for that movie is strong enough to reward them both. That leaves Vanessa Kirby -- whose movie I didn't see, Carey Mulligan and Andra Day, who surprised everyone by winning the Golden Globe for her performance as Billie Holiday.
Will Win: Carey Mulligan. I think the mediocre reception to the films of Kirby and Day, but not their performances will cancel them out. And I think Mulligan may pull off an upset here. She's universally viewed as the best part of a relatively polarizing movie. And here's the thing, clearly the Oscar voters love the movie because it made the Best Picture and Best Director races. This may be the best and only place to reward it. I could be wrong -- and I often am. But this is my wild card pick.
Should Win: Frances McDormand. I wish she was winning for this instead of Three Billboards, which is a movie that really left a bad taste in my mouth. But the best performance is the best performance and her work in Nomadland was just so moving and real. You're right about it almost playing like something out of a silent movie. She's definitely operating on a level that few actresses get to at this stage of their careers and I can't wait to see her in her husband Joel Coen's upcoming adaptation of MacBeth, alongside Denzel Washington.
Snubs: Elizabeth Moss in The Invisible Man. She was never going to get a nomination for such a commercial genre movie, but Moss has really been on a roll playing bugged out people on the end of their rope (Her Smell) or slightly possessed (Us) and i think she is so consistently underrated.
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