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| Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything |
Brian: Up next is Best Actor. We have a really strong group of performances and a major snub (*cough* *cough* Selma *cough*). I am really excited for this category.
One of our favorite actors could finally get the recognition he deserves after a career of amazing performances.
Yes, Michael Keaton is up for Best Actor for his brilliant, somewhat self-reflective, performance in Birdman.
Although, this IS the Oscars and we've seen actors get the shaft before (hello Bill Murray).
Here are the nominees:
Steve Carrell - Foxcatcher
Bradley Cooper - Not Selma (American Sniper)
Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
Michael Keaton - Birdman
Eddie Redmayne - The Theory Of Everything
Who Will Win: Eddie Redmayne
I'm calling the first big upset of the night. Redmayne came away with the SAG Award for his performance as Stephen Hawking, and the SAG winner has gone on to win the Oscar in the past 10 years or so. He wins it here.
Who Should Win: Michael Keaton
Come on Oscar! Give one of the greatest actors of all time the award he rightfully deserves.
Actual Dark Horse: I think this is a two person race between Redmayne and Keaton. If I had to pick anyone else I would have to go with Bradley Cooper for the overrated American Sniper. Pretending that plastic baby is real deserves its own acting award. I could also see Cumberbatch as a potential spoiler. Hell, Carrell was amazing, too. Really strong group of actors this year.Who takes your top actor Oscar?
Adam: This is a pretty strong group but yes, there is just no excuse for the David Oyelowo snub, it's not about race it's about the performance and he easily gave one of the best of the year. In fact I would say alongside Keaton and Carrell, those were my three favorite leading man roles this year. He "became" MLK, which is an incredible feat and he gave the character depth and nuance, not bad for a Brit playing such a quintessentially American role.
I haven't seen The Theory of Everything and to be honest I'm not sure I want to. It felt like one of those movies where when you've seen the trailer you've seen the entire movie, and it just felt like A Beautiful Mind redux for me. I did see The Imitation Game and was kind of underwhelmed by it. I really like Benedict Cumberbatch as an actor, but he didn't do anything different than he does on Sherlock and in several of his other roles. He's the charming jerk who eventually reveals his sensitive side. I'd love to see him stretch more, maybe do a comedy.
Carrell was magnificently creepy in Foxcatcher, Cooper was good in American Sniper but I don't think he deserves an Oscar for it, and although I'm biased because he's one of my favorite actors -- I think Keaton gave the performance of the year in Birdman.
Will win: Eddie Redmayne
I just have a bad feeling about this. Even though the Best Actor award normally skews older, the Academy always seems to be a sucker for physically transformative roles. Personally I am a bigger fan of "the role of their lifetime" type of performances and to me that's why Keaton's fits like a glove, but to your point SAG wins are almost always the best predictor and Redmayne's victory there seems to suggest he is the favorite. I've heard he is terrific in the film and I don't doubt that but it seems like the kind of performance that won't be remembered decades from now.
Should win: Michael Keaton
Yes, the meta nature of the role is the hook but the emotional complexity and pathos of his performance make you forget all that stuff and view his character as a unique original creation instead of a riff on Keaton's career. His touching Globes speech was just a warm up act and I think more than any other race my heart is with him on this one.
Dark Horse: Bradley Cooper
I feel like this film is too huge not to get rewarded somewhere and stranger things have happened. This year reminds me a bit of 2002 where everyone saw it as a race between Daniel Day-Lewis (for Gangs of New York) and Jack Nicholson (for About Schmidt) and then Adrien Brody came out of nowhere and shocked the world (and Halle Berry, by giving her a long smooch at the podium). Even though American Sniper is divisive, Cooper is quickly become Hollywood's new golden boy and he has matured into a solid, likable leading man. I thought his work here was good but not exceptional, but he may have more momentum on his side than Keaton and Redmayne.
Brian: That's 3 for 3 so far! We both smell an upset for Best Actor. I thought you were gonna call it for Keaton. It'll definitely be interesting in the one (and maybe only) category with a chance for drama to unfold. Next up is our last acting category of the evening: Best Actress.
Again, there doesn't seem to be much confusion as to who will win this year. It boils down to Julianne Moore and everybody else. She's cleaning up on the circuit and I don't see anyone else stopping her.
The nominees are:
Marion Cotillard - Two Days One Night
Felicity Jones - The Theory Of Everything
Julianne Moore - Still Alice
Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon - Wild
Who Will Win: Julianne Moore
In a down year for women, The Academy rewards one buzzed-about performance. For a short while I thought this was the year of the Reese Witherspoon renaissance. I haven't seen Wild yet, but I've heard good things about her character's story of self-discovery and redemption... And then the awards season kicked into high gear, and it's been all Moore all the time.
She's won the SAG, the BAFTA, and the Golden Globe for her portrayal of a woman struggling with Alzheimers. There's no stopping this runaway train. Moore wins in a landslide.
Who Should Win: Julianne Moore
I'm basing this solely on the fact that since she's won everything else, she deserves the Oscar. Sadly, I haven't seen Still Alice yet, but I plan to when it comes out on home video.
Dark Horse: Rosamund Pike
You liked the movie more than I did. Pike does a formidable job of playing the titular gone girl. I wasn't wild about the movie, but it did major box office and I could see her as a possible dark horse candidate. Or do the voters give us a Theory Of Everything clean sweep with Felicity Jones? Assuming Eddie Redmayne wins as we are both predicting he will.
Adam: Yeah, I want Keaton to win desperately and won't be surprised if he does, but I am used to Oscar disappointing me, particularly in this category. I still can't believe Jean Dujardin won for The Artist when George Clooney gave perhaps his best performance of all time for The Descendants. I am sad to say I have not seen most of the films featuring nominees for Best Actress -- that said, I don't think I'm far off when I say that this doesn't seem to be the strongest crop and the race seems anything but competitive.
Perhaps if Reese Witherspoon hadn't already won (undeservedly in my opinion) she might have given frontrunner Julianne Moore a run for her money. But it seems like this is going to be the Julianne Moore lifetime achievement award. It doesn't seem like anyone else is even close to stealing her thunder.
Will Win: Julianne Moore
Moore has long been one of Hollywood's greatest actresses and she has been nominated several times and never won (even though she deserved the award when she made Far From Heaven and Boogie Nights). I have heard nothing but amazing things about her performance and she is certainly "due." And, gratefully, I've heard the performance is definitely worthy.
Should win: Julianne Moore
She seems to stand head and shoulders above the competition. I loved Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl, she gave a fun mainstream movie star type performance. I don't really know what Felicity Jones did that was all that special and both Witherspoon and Marion Cotillard have won fairly recently.
Dark Horse: Felicity Jones
Unlike Best Actor this category often honors up-and-coming ingenues, think Gwenyth Paltrow in Shakespeare in Love or Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook. I haven't heard anything exceptional about her performance but Hollywood loves to crown a new darling, seems like that's the spot she's filling here.
Plus, to your earlier point, if there's a groundswell for Redmayne, she could ride in on his coattails.
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