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| JK Simmons in Whiplash |
Brian: I've been lazy this year (and I haven't seen nearly enough movies). I'm going to keep it short and hit up the big categories. The time has finally come.
The movie nerd Super Bowl is here, so let's waste no more time and get right to it. The rules are the same as last year.
We'll rifle through the (major) categories and give our picks for who we think will win, who should win, and any possible upsets.
Unlike the actual Oscar telecast, we'll keep this short and sweet. We'll tackle the major categories (acting, directing, picture). First up is Supporting Actor.
And the nominees are:
Robert Duvall - The Judge
Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
Edward Norton - Birdman
Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
Who Will Win: J.K. Simmons This is about as big of a slam dunk as there has been in recent years. Simmons brilliant portrayal of an intense music teacher has already earned him a boatload of awards including a SAG and Golden Globe. He wins the big one this Sunday.
Who Should Win: Simmons He's a great actor who is finally getting his due. This was the role of a lifetime and he nailed it.
Dark Horse: I don't think there will be any upsets, but if I had to pick one, my guess would be Edward Norton in Birdman. Our boy Michael Keaton (deservedly) gets all the love for his brilliant performance, but Edward Norton also gives a hell of a performance. Still, I think this is J.K. Simmons' category, and there's no stopping him. Another performance that I really loved is Ethan Hawke in my favorite movie of the year, Boyhood. He was so real and relatable in that role. I would like to see him get a little more love. How about you? Who takes home your supporting Oscar?
Adam: Looking at Best Supporting Actor, this is always one of my favorite categories and it's one of the few that you can win for playing a villain or comedic role or just generally chewing the scenery. And let's face it, because the sexist Hollywood power structure always come up with meatier roles for men, these actors often have more screen time and better roles than their female peers in leading categories. This year's crop is pretty strong save for Robert Duvall, a great actor who seems to be getting a nod for just staying in the game this long.
Who will win: J.K. Simmons
I think you're spot on in your assessment -- he's won every precursor ever out there, the movie had a strong showing at the nominations despite being a small movie that few people have seen.
Who should win: J.K. Simmons
Simmons is the straw that stirs the drink in this film, he is just riveting and hilarious and scary ("Not my tempo!"). I loved the performances of Hawke, Norton and Ruffalo a lot, but their time will come.
Dark Horse: Edward Norton
Sometimes supporting races can take a shocking left turn and a surefire lock can get upset on Oscar night. I agree with you that if anyone can pull it off it's Norton, one our greatest actors who has never won, and his hilarious, self deprecating work in Birdman is a revelation.
Brian: The next category up is for Supporting Actress. Can you agree with me that it hasn't been the strongest year for women in terms of roles? Not that there haven't been strong performances this year by women, but rather these performances almost feel like an afterthought. There isn't really a breakout performance by a woman this year.
I haven't seen Into The Woods, but it feels like Meryl Streep is nominated because they needed a 5th person in this category. Not to mention the giant elephant in the room that there wasn't a single person of color nominated for acting this year. I know many words have been written on the subject, but I can't get over the Selma snub.
My only hope is that we're living in a dream world and will wake up on Sunday to see Selma get its proper due. With that being said, here are the nominees:
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| Patricia Arquette in Boyhood |
Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Laura Dern - Wild
Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
Emma Stone - Birdman
Meryl Streep - Obligatory Nomination (Kidding, It's for Into The Woods)
Who Will Win: Patricia Arquette
I think this is another runaway victory. Arquette gave a brilliant performance as the mother of two children in Boyhood. I'm amazed that these actors were able to seamlessly jump into their characters and deliver such wonderful performances, while filming for one or two weekends a year over twelve years.
She was incredible as a mother trying to hold her family together while dealing with her own personal struggles and growth. I absolutely loved this performance and I think she takes home the statue.
Who Should Win: Patricia Arquette
She is the back bone that holds this movie together, and should deservedly win the Oscar.
Dark Horse: Emma Stone
This feels like a two person race. I think there's a chance Emma Stone could make a late charge for her performance in Birdman. The other three nominees should just be happy to be along for the ride. Do you see Arquette taking home the gold, or do you smell an upset?
Adam: Saying this year was weak year for women's roles is an understatement, it was a terrible year -- although I would argue there was one truly phenomenal breakout woman's performance for me -- and that was Scarlett Johansson in Under the Skin. It's not the kind of movie that gets Oscar nominations -- it's just too weird, but the role was unlike anything I've ever seen, and this actress -- who is known more for tabloid fodder than talent, knocked it out of the park -- but again, I digress.
I too haven't seen Into the Woods, I heard Meryl Streep was incredible in it but when has anyone ever heard she was "ehh" in anything. I have enormous respect for her career and talent but it's getting to be absurd how often she's nominated.
To me, this is one of the biggest locks of the night, and it should be.
Will win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Easily one of my favorite performances of the year, a moving, honest and incredibly sustained performance that spans over a decade. Arquette was the heart and soul of arguably the best film of the year. The movie may have been about a boy but in the end it was his mother that made me reassess my own life.
Should win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Emma Stone did strong, funny work in Birdman but I just don't think it'll be enough for a win. Keira Knightley was good in Imitation Game, a film I was not bowled over by. I am a huge Laura Dern fan so I was excited to see her sneak in for Wild, a movie I missed but still intend to check out. But Arquette has won every award out there for her career best performance and I will be rooting for her on Sunday.
Dark Horse: Laura Dern has been an outstanding character actress for decades and I could see Oscar rewarding her here in what would be one of the biggest upsets in years. I haven't seen Wild but I know for a fact it has its passionate defenders and Dern is riding a wave of appreciation for her and her family's acting dynasty. Still, I am sure Arquette will emerge victorious.
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