Adam: I'll get us started on the next category -- the one almost always seems like a foregone conclusion (ever noticed that?) -- Best Supporting Actress. As per usual, there were an embarrassment of riches in terms of great female supporting performances, although quite a few, also as per usual were overlooked.
Here are the nominees:
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Marina de Tavira, “Roma”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
I think the malaise I feel about this year's awards reflects just a lack of imagination on their part. Sure more unconventional movies like Black Panther and BlacKkKlansman are in the mix, but then there are a lot nominations that feel like gimmes -- like Amy Adams in Vice. Don't get me wrong -- I love Amy Adams and hope she wins one eventually, but this role isn't worthy of a nom, I'm sorry.
But, other than that one I don't have a lot of quibbles with this list. Marina de Tavira got in surprisingly for her very effecting performance in Roma, which squeezed out the anticipated nod for Claire Foy, who really was excellent in First Man -- totally upending the cliched astronaut wife role. And I was thrilled to see the double nom of stars from The Favourite -- one of my favorite movies of the year. I don't know how that movie is going to do overall -- it's way too dark and quirky to win any of the big ones. But I digress.
Who will win: Regina King, If Beale Street Can Talk
Everyone loves her, rightfully so. She's one of those people that everyone presumes MUST have won an Oscar by now. True story I once won a $50 bet with a boss of mine, years ago, over whether she had ever even been nominated (she hasn't). She's taken most precursor awards and is a warm and lovely presence in the movie -- probably the most grounded, accessible thing about it,
Who should win: Regina King If Beale Street Could Talk
This is a closer call for me that you might think. If Emma Stone hadn't just won for La La Land, I might be rooting for her in this category, because I think this is the performance of her career to date. I'd call it Gravity syndrome -- someone wins for a far inferior role (think Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side) and then lose for a much better performance years later that actually was worthy of a victory (think Sandra Bullock in Gravity). And Rachel Weisz is her equal in probably the least showy role of the three Favourite leads. But both actresses have trophies (Weisz won for The Constant Gardner, again, I think the Gravity syndrome applies there, too) and King is long overdo (she's the BEST thing in Jerry Maguire, seriously).
Snubs/Surprises: Rather a lot really. Claire Foy, for sure. I loved First Man, and like you and mystified as to why audiences and awards shows didn't. Foy was the one part no one seemed to have an issue with but alas no Foy. I also think that Nicole Kidman deserved consideration for her terrific work in Boy Erased (And Russell Crowe was great too, should have mentioned him in the supporting column).
There was some talk of Emily Blunt getting in for A Quiet Place, but I figured she'd get in for Mary Poppins Returns, she got neither and I was bummed because she was stellar in both. Something tells me she will eventually get her Glenn Close consolation Oscar.
For all the -- well deserved -- hype around Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther, I was always mystified as to why there was never any talk of nominated Letitia Wright for her role as Shuri. Certainly, it was more of a comedic role, but she stole every scene she was in and ended up being a real iconic character, too.
Brian: Ha! I would have lost that bet with you because I, like your old boss, assumed that she had already been nominated. I also forgot that she was in Jerry Maguire, but now I can't get her out of my mind from that one (in a good way!). I do like your Gravity syndrome as it happens a lot (look at Martin Scorsese finally winning for The Departed.). Hell, look at Leo DiCaprio winning for The Revenant. I also agree that this category has historically felt like a foregone conclusion, with this year being no different.I'm also in agreement with you on how this category has 4 strong performances and a meh Amy Adams nomination that probably should have gone to someone more imaginative. We're on the same page with this year being, for the most part, the "play it safe" Oscars.
Who Will Win: Regina King. She's cleaning up in the lead up to the Oscars and I have no reason to believe this one will be any different.
Who Should Win: I haven't seen The Favourite, so I can't speak on that, so if it's not going to be King, I'd go with Marina De Tavira. Maybe I have a soft spot for strong single mothers (since I came from one), but I was absolutely floored by her performance as a woman trying her best to keep a straight face in the middle of a marriage meltdown.
Snubs/Surprises: While I really liked Letitia Wright in Black Panther, I'd go with Danai Gurira for her performance as the badass warrior, Okoye. I'm seeing Boy Erased next week, and I can't wait to see Kidman's performance in it.
Up next, Best Actor...
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