Brian: The Best Actor category is puzzling to me. And this is where I base my #OscarsSoWTF hashtag. How can an actor (Ethan Hawke) that's currently doing very well in the pre-Oscar run-up be completely left out?
His performance in First Reformed is not only one of the year's best... it's a career defining role! I just don't get it. I'm puzzled at the other nominations. We've seen a body transforming performance from Christian Bale before Vice, so I'm not all that jazzed about this one.
Rami Malek is the presumptive front-runner for his take on the late, great Freddie Mercury, and yet, I can't help but wonder what that film (and performance) would have looked like had Sasha Baron Cohen not dropped out. I'm glad that Bradley Cooper is getting some love for his performance (even though he got snubbed as a director).
I can't really speak on Willem Dafoe's performance, though I've heard good things.
I feel like there is a laundry list of actors who have a genuine beef as to why they were left out. Anyway, on to the nominations...
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Who Will Win: Rami Malek. The Oscars love a music biopic (see: Foxx, Jamie & Witherspoon, Reese), and Malek seems poised to take home this one. I haven't seen the movie yet, but I heard he does a really good job portraying Mercury.
Who Should Win: Anyone but Viggo Mortensen! Of the people nominated, I'd go with Bradley Cooper. He's delivered a string of Oscar quality performances and I think he gave a genuinely moving performance in A Star Is Born. I thought this film would clean up, but it seems to be more of an afterthought this year. Speaking of afterthoughts... what the hell happened with First Man??? I thought Ryan Gosling was a lock for this category, but the voters seem to have passed this film by. Robert Redford's (supposed) final acting role was overlooked as well. Finally, John David Washington deserved a nomination for BlacKkKlansman.
Who ya got?
Snubs/Surprises: Hawke. It's not even close.
I actually disagree with you the Rami Malek is the front-runner. I might have thought so two weeks ago, but the recently resurrected allegations against Bryan Singer, which were exhaustively explored in a recent article in The Atlantic.
In the wake of this piece, which makes a compelling case that Singer has been sexually abusing young men and boys for decades -- there have been a lot of pointed questions about what did Malek know and when did he know it. He's claimed he was unaware of Singer's reputation when he took on the role of Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody -- but a lot of folks are calling B.S. on that.
Aside from that, despite its blockbuster grosses, the movie has a mixed-to-bad reception and even though Malek is widely seen as the best part of the film (I haven't seen it yet, so I can't judge), I think the whole production has become to problematic to embrace in any way. But, I could be wrong.
I hear a lot of folks saying Bale is the lock to win, which seems even stranger to me.
He's terrific in Vice, a movie that I have a lot of issues with. But he's already won for The Fighter and I can't remember someone winning Best Actor for a movie as critically divisive as that one, although the academy clearly liked it because they nominated it for a boatload of top honors, including Best Picture and Director. So maybe he's got a real shot.
No one has seen At Eternity's Gate, literally no one. I think it doesn't exist. We all love Willem Dafoe, it's a travesty that he doesn't have an Oscar. He should have won for The Florida Project, and hopefully he'll get one someday. But it ain't happening. I'm sure Viggo Mortenson is good in Green Book, and he's also due, but that movie also feels too toxic to reward, especially in this category featuring its white star.
Who will win: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born ... All of which leads me to the guy who for most of the year I was reading was a practical guarantee to win for Best Actor. He's been nominated a bunch of times and never won, and this is arguably the best performance of his career. I'm not sure how this movie and this performance sort of faded away for people... I don't know if the movie peaked too early. But since he was snubbed for Director and this was very much his (and Lady Gaga's) achievement -- I think they'll find a way to reward him and the movie here.
Who should win: Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born - I say this with the caveat that many of the best leading man performances from this year were totally snubbed. I haven't seen Malek, Dafoe and Mortenson's work -- so I could be wrong -- but it feels like a worthy victory for Cooper.
Snubs/Surprises - Where to begin here. Again, Ethan Hawke in First Reformed is the most shocking one. I really would have loved to see Robert Redford get in for his career capping performance in The Old Man & The Gun, sadly it looks like he'll never get an acting Oscar in his career. I think Clint Eastwood gave a wonderful comic performance tinged with melancholy in The Mule. It would have been cool to recognize John David Washington's subtle work in BlacKkKlansman or Joaquin Phoenix's haunted performance in You Were Never Really Here.
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