Brian: I'm actually floored by these nominations. Sure, the Golden Globes always seem to nominate films and actors to get "stars" into the room on event night. Look at Johnny Depp being nominated for Mordecai. I always take their winners with a grain of salt because, while an enjoying show, the Globes are never really a metric to rely on. However, I'm seeing a weird trend this year Like you've said, for whatever reason (and I'm searching for answers), these are the films that have been settled upon.
We've got Vice (63% Rotten Tomatoes & 61 Metacritic score) , Bohemian Rhapsody (62% RT & 49% MC), and Green Book (82% & 70% MC) lurking all over these nominations. Are they front runners? Are we headed for a Best Picture winner that's worse than the infamous Crash debacle? I can't recall a weirder year for movies than 2018, but here we are. Like I said, #OscarsSoWTF.
Anything can happen. The Oscars have no host. Major cinematic achievements are getting the cold shoulder and a superhero movie has cracked the list for Best Picture (even though the stars and director got left out in the cold) Speaking of snubs... For the first time I can remember, I can honestly say that it feels like there's legitimate and baffling snubs in each category... and not just because of an odd person out type situation.
Hollywood has a chance to nominate some fresh and exciting performances that, in a banner year for films, wouldn't get recognized. Instead, they played it safe again. We'll get to those during the picks, as well as who we think will and should win. Both of our best of 2018 lists are out and for the most part we enjoyed the same crop of movies. As always, you've seen way more of these than I have, but our lists are pretty close.
Welcome back to the 6th (!) edition of our Oscar Pick-A-Palooza. Let's get after it.
Our first category is Best Supporting Actor. I feel like there's a giant sized Black Panther hole here, which will be a recurring theme throughout this back and forth. Sam Rockwell was another surprise to me. Dubya was portrayed better and more sincerely by Josh Brolin in Oliver Stone's movie. I believe you called it a above average in your Daily Beast article. I'm glad to see Sam Elliott finally break through with a nomination for his emotional "brother of an addict on his last straw" performance in A Star Is Born.
It was weird to see Mahershala Ali in as a supporting actor in what was essentially a co-lead performance in Green Book. Adam Driver was great in BlacKkKlansman, but it hurts to see the heart and soul of that movie, John David Washington, left out.
Here are the nominees:
Mahershala Ali, "Green Book"
Adam Driver, "BlacKkKlansman"
Sam Elliott, "A Star Is Born"
Richard E. Grant, "Can You Ever Forgive Me"
Sam Rockwell, "Vice"
Who Will Win: Honestly, I don't know. I feel like Green Book will Crash (see what I did there?) its way into the winner's circle, so I'm going with him.
Who Should Win: Of the people nominated, I'm going to go with Sam Elliott. He deserves it for the scene in which Bradley Cooper's character tells him that he admired Elliott's character his whole life alone, but he was so good throughout.
Snub/Surprise: The answer here is, of course, Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther. There hasn't been a better, more developed superhero villain performance than Killmonger in Black Panther. I'm also going to throw out anyone in First Man for this.
I'm still completely bewildered by the complete lack of Oscar love for First Man. It has all the ingredients (Oscar favorite director? Check. Stellar cast? Check. Biopic? Check.) to score a ton of nominations and yet it fell flat.
Who takes home your Supporting Actor statue?
Adam: I don't disagree with your assessment at all. I think it's just that at this point I'm so used to being disappointed by Oscar nominees that I am almost more surprised when they get it right -- like with Moonlight a couple years ago.
This year, it seemed like more than ever certain movies were crowned early, and several strongly reviewed releases (like First Man, which I also really loved) were just never given a chance to get any traction.
I guess it'll be a more exciting year than most results-wise, since it doesn't feel like there is any definitive front-runner in a lot of the categories, including Best Picture. I was of course pleased to see my favorite movie of the year, Black Panther, got recognized, even if it wasn't as honored as I would have liked. And it's a pleasure to finally see Spike Lee honored as a Best Director nominee ever -- which is insane -- and marks the first time black directors were nominated for two years in a row.
Unfortunately some strong work by several female directors like Lynne Ramsey (You Were Never Really Here) were completely ignored.
This year felt like one step forward (The Favourite) and two steps back (Vice and based on what I've heard, Bohemian Rhapsody). There are a handful of the big nominees I haven't seen like The Wife and Cold War, but I have a decent sense of how they'll fare. At the end of the day the two nominations I wanted to see the most -- Ryan Coogler for Best Director and Michael B. Jordan for Best Supporting Actor -- didn't happen. And so I'm left to root for mostly films and people who likely going to come up empty handed.
Of the folks who did make the cut -- I'm mostly fine with the choices with the exception of Rockwell, who is barely in Vice and who pushed out meatier, more compelling performances.
Will win: Mahershala Ali. He has managed to stay about the fray when it comes to the controversies and backlash surrounding Green Book (a film I've avoided). He's a fantastic actor, and I hear the best thing in the film. The one thing maybe working against him is that he just won two years ago, but that didn't stop a recent repeat winner like Christoph Waltz
Should win: Sam Elliott. Of these final contenders, I think his performance was the most effective and really elevated the movie he was in. I too quite liked Adam Driver's work in BlacKkKlansman, he's a great, underrated actor who will be a contender for years. And Richard E. Grant was very good in a part he was born to play, but this feels like the best role of Elliott's career. It'd be cool to see him win for it.
Snubs/Surprises: It mystifies me that Michael B. Jordan has still never been Oscar nominated. It's not like he has a bad reputation. This is the third unforgivable snub in a row after Fruitvale Station and Creed. Hopefully, someday soon he'll get his due. If Widows had hit bigger, it might have been possible for Daniel Kaluuya's bone-chilling villain from that movie to make it. And I know this isn't a widely held opinion, but I really thought Sylvester Stallone was just as moving in Creed II as he was in the first one.
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