Oscar-a-palooza part 6: Who's the best actress?

This is the fourth installment of a series of 2018-2019 Oscar predictions/opinion posts alongside Too Fat 4 Skinny Jeans blogger Brian Wezowicz. Check out our takes on this year's  supporting actor and actress races here and here. And our picks in the best actor race can be found here.

Stay tuned for our takes on the other major categories for the always polarizing Academy Awards.

Brian: I'm sticking with my Malek front runner prediction... especially after he took home the SAG award last night. I think the Singer accusations, while horrible, are too late to derail his momentum. 

We'll see.

Speaking of front runners... we're on to the next category... Best Actress. I think this category is practically a one person race, which I'll get to in my predictions. I also think that the academy generally got it right with this category. A case could be made for Emily Blunt's joyous portrayal of Mary Poppins, but was she that much better than the other women nominated? I'm not so sure. I'm really glad that Yalitza Aparicio got the nod for her quiet yet brilliant performance in Roma. Before the pre-Oscar run-up, I thought Lady Gaga was a shoo-in to win this one.

However, it looks like this one's a lock for Glenn Close. Speaking of pre-Oscar run-up, these award shows steal all the fun and surprise from the Oscars. We basically know who is going to win ahead of time. I think it's a large reason why people are turning away from watching the Oscars. I know I'm less interested in watching the ceremony than I was even a couple years ago. Perhaps the Oscars should look into moving the ceremony ahead of the SAG, PGA, Golden Globes, etc.?

Here are the nominees:

Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) 
Glenn Close (The Wife) 
Olivia Colman (The Favourite) 
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born) 
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Who Will Win: Glenn Close. This category feels like a coronation for Close. She's cleaning up so far and I see no reason that the Oscars will be any different. It would be a nice topper to a brilliant career.  

Who Should Win: I haven't seen The Wife yet, so by all accounts Glenn Close deserves all the accolades coming her way. However, I was absolutely blown away by Yalitza Aparicio in Roma. She deserves it for the birthing scene (and I don't want to spoil it for anyone) alone, which was one of the most emotionally intense scenes I've seen in a movie in a long time. Lady Gaga also gave a great performance in A Star Is Born, but I feel like Bradley Cooper had the meatier role. Gaga tied with Close at the PGA awards, so there's a chance she could win the Oscar.

Snubs/Surprises: I know the Academy generally stays away from "weird" sci-fi, but Annihilation was my favorite movie of the year and I'm upset at the lack of Oscar love it received. I know her role wasn't as showy as some of her other previously nominated roles (Black Swan and Jackie), but I loved Natalie Portman in Annihilation and would have liked to have seen her name included.

 Are we in agreement with this one?

Adam: This was a very solid group to be sure. I guess the only surprise was that Yalitza Aparicio got in -- and that wasn't too huge a surprise, since she is the heart and soul of Roma. I do think this is -- probably -- the one forgone conclusion of the night in a year that is weirdly unpredictable. For instance, does last night's SAG win for Best Cast now make Black Panther the front-runner now? I don't know.

The precursor thing can be weird to be sure, and I guess SAG is a better indicator than most. For me, I don't usually watch the Oscars in suspense. I just like moving acceptance speeches -- they always get me and I think the winner of this category will deliver a doozy.

I do know that you're right that Glenn Close has emerged as the clear front-runner. Lady Gaga was really remarkable in A Star Is Born, a part -- forgive me -- she was 'born' to play. I think she'll probably have to prove herself again like Cher did in Moonstruck after her initial nomination for Silkwood before the academy fully embraces her. I also think her consolation prize will be the Best Song category -- and she will be well on her way to I'm sure will be an inevitable EGOT. Everyone else, though terrific, will have to wait their turn.

Aparcio is a great discovery and will hopefully get more opportunities. Melissa McCarthy was very good in a movie I had some quibbles with and in a role that was hard to make even a little sympathetic. I haven't seen The Wife, but I've always been a Close fan, so I'm intrigued. But I am all about Olivia Coleman this year. More on that in a sec.

Who will win: Glenn Close, The Wife. Close has clearly been gunning for the Oscar for decades now. Her last attempt with 2012's Albert Nobbs came up short but this year feels different. She's been so great for so long -- that Golden Globes speech just sealed it. And I'm happy for her. She's so terrific in roles as wildly different as Fatal Attraction and The Natural. Looks like seventh time is the charm.

Who should win: Olivia Coleman, The Favourite. I don't know about 'should' -- all of these people are worthy (unlike Best Actor) -- I just have to go with the performance I enjoyed the most and that would be Coleman's tour-de-force work in The Favourite. She's alternately funny, pathetic, sad, tragic, manipulative and doomed. It's a really amazing piece of work and I hope she continues to get juicy parts like this.

Snubs/Surprises - This is a pretty stacked category but I'd be lying if I said I wouldn't have been thrilled if Toni Collette had made it in for Hereditary or if Viola Davis got in for Widows. For a while, it looked like Emily Blunt would be nominated for her luminous movie star performance in Mary Poppins Returns. But yeah, this is a hard group to find fault with. At least Meryl Streep isn't in there for the 100th time (and don't get me wrong, I love her).