Although the Globes aren't very predictive of the Oscars, I hope this isn't the beginning of some kind of backlash to the Martin Scorsese epic.
The nominations are coming out on the 13th, so all the speculation about nominations will soon come to an end and pivot to the winners, and this is a very competitive year.
There are plenty of movies that are virtually assured nominations, like The Irishman, Marriage Story, Parasite, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood to name a few. But there is no no brainer frontrunner for Best Picture and there's at least a little suspense in the acting races, even though I think there should be more, because some of the so-called sure things have underwhelmed me.
As this long period of nerdy obsessiveness comes to a close here are some unpopular opinions I've had about what's transpired so far.
Laura Dern is going to be nominated for the wrong movie - The great Laura Dern is long overdue for recognition and she is heavily favored to win the Best Supporting Actress trophy for her colorful Marriage Story performance (personally, I think Jennifer Lopez ought to win for Hustlers). Having seen Marriage Story and her other supporting turn in Little Women, I actually think her performance in that film is more moving and effective. Every time she came on screen I was welling up with tears. She'll never get a nom for that movie, if anyone does it'll be the very deserving Florence Pugh and of course, I am happy to see Dern win full stop. I guess I am just not as blown away by Marriage Story as some people,
SNL bias is hurting Eddie Murphy and Adam Sandler - I can't believe this -- but no SNL performer has ever won an Oscar (Adam McKay, who wrote for the show, won Best Adapted Screenplay for The Big Short). Plenty ex-SNLers have been nominated, including Bill Murray and believe it or not Dan Aykroyd. This year two of the most legendary performers from the show's history gave career best performances that have landed them in the Best Actor conversation but most prognosticators don't have either actor making the cut despite universal raves for their work. Granted, the Best Actor race is more competitive than usual this year, but I have to think a disposition to dismiss the work of people with an SNL background is hurting these two, which is a real shame.
The Two Popes isn't Oscar worthy - Every year that's at least one Oscar movie that I don't connect with at all, and for me this year it was The Two Popes. It's a handsome production, with two perfectly ok performances from veterans Anthony Hopkins and Jonathan Pryce, but there are far more compelling offerings this year. Somehow Pryce is being favored to make the Best Actor cut, which doesn't make a lot of sense to me and the movie also has a shot at Best Picture too. There is something very King's Speech about this one. It feels old fashioned and self consciously prestige-y, but I don't think it's particularly interesting, unless you think two popes enjoying a soccer game is sublime.
Why isn't Lupita a shoo-in? - Ever since Us debuted last March critics have been hailing Lupita Nyong'o's lead performance as one of the year's best. And even though it's almost a year later, she's been cleaning up with awards from many of the critics' groups. In fact, a lot of people -- myself included -- would say she gave THE performance of last year regardless of gender. And, yet a nomination for her is anything but a certainty. Experts seem to be convinced that Renee Zellweger will win easily for her comeback role in Judy -- I haven't seen that movie, so I can't speak to how deserving she is -- but it's curious that there only seems to be room for one woman of color (Cynthia Erivo for Harriet) while Lupita and Awkwafina (for The Farewell) are seen as on the outside looking in.
Greta Gerwig deserves to be in Best Director class - Only one woman -- one -- has ever won Best Director and I can count the number of women who have been nominated on one hand. This is a travesty. In the last two years especially there have been several very worthy women nominees who've been snubbed for no good reason other than sexism in the director's branch of the Academy. Gerwig could and should pull off the remarkable feat of being nominated for her first two features and being the first woman nominated for Best Director twice. This year it makes sense that Scorsese and Tarantino are locks, since both delivered their sort of magnum opus mission statements. Sam Mendes' 1917 is said to be a major technical achievement. And Bong Joon-Ho's Parasite is just too brilliant to be ignored. But that still leaves one spot. Some are giving it to Noam Bambauch, ironically Gerwig's partner, for his highly personal Marriage Story -- but her Little Women is such a more ambitious and expansive film, it has every quality of a major Best Picture movie. Hopefully she won't be snubbed again on the 13th.
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