Brian: I still "watch" the show... just not the entire thing. I try to watch the opening act and the first few awards, but I just can't commit to staying up so late to watch something that will probably disappoint me.
Before moving on, I want to circle back to Bombshell for a minute. I definitely want to watch it because I (sadly) worked there around that time, and it'll be interesting to see how they depict that time period. While there were rumors and innuendo, the truth didn't get down to worker bees like myself. I don't know if it's necessarily exonerating Fox News for its horrid views, but rather showing that it can happen to any woman, anywhere, at any time. I'll reserve judgment until I see it, I guess. Still, it seems like Charlize Theron got the acting nod because of how closely she looks like Megyn Kelly in her makeup.
On to the next category, Best Supporting Actor. To me, this is the least "controversial" category in terms of snubs or surprises. It also seems like one of the most safest bets in the show. It's Brad Pitt's award to lose, and I don't think there's much of a doubt about that. He's great in Once Upon A Time... In Hollywood, and I see no reason why he won't be up on stage. Is it his best performance? I'm not ready to declare that at this time, but it seems like this will be the one that finally gets him an Oscar (much like his co-star DiCaprio finally winning for The Revenant and countless other "it's their time" winners).
As far as the other nominees, my favorite is probably Joe Pesci in The Irishman. I kept waiting for him to explode in burst of classic Pesci intensity, but it never happened. His completely against the grain performance might just be my favorite in-screen performance of the year.
Here's the nominees:
Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes”
Al Pacino, “The Irishman”
Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Who will win: Brad Pitt. Like a fine wine, Brad Pitt only gets better with age. And I LOVE that he's not trying to run away from aging... similar to someone like Robert Redford. Granted, he still looks 35, so that helps, but I'm really excited to see where this chapter of his career takes him.
Who should win: If anyone deserves it more than Pitt, it's Pesci. He gives the performance of his career here as a man who can turn tides (and take lives) simply by looking at someone. I can't say enough about his performance in The Irishman.
Snub: Off the top of my head, I can't really think of anyone who was snubbed per say, but I'll give you a couple of long shot performances that I absolutely adored. First up is LaKeith Stanfield in Uncut Gems. Adam Sandler had the meatier role, but Stanfield was the perfect "devil on the shoulder" to keep Sandler's madness at an 11. But like you said, that movie was criminally left out of the show. Another role that I loved was Daniel Craig in Knives Out... in particular his Foghorn Leghorn accent. He was the perfect blend of quick wit and self-deprecation that served as the backbone for the "whodunit" story.
Who would I take out to put one of these guys in? Probably Al Pacino. I don't think he really stepped out of his comfort zone with his portrayal of Jimmy Hoffa. It was a little too Scent Of A Woman for me. Still enjoyable, but nothing new.
Who takes home your statue?
Adam: I guess we'll have to agree to disagree about the Pacino performance in The Irishman. I thought he was more brilliant than he's been in a decade, and probably sold the more youthful scenes a little better than his counterparts. I was also totally bowled over by Pesci's work. I think this is one of those categories where it is very hard to compare performances.
There's no question that what Pesci, Pacino and Hanks for that matter are doing is technically more demanding than what Brad Pitt is doing. But Pitt inhabits his Cliff Booth character so fully that I think he's undeniable. It's one of the great movie star performances and it sort of feels like a culmination of all the laconic cool guys he's played over the years. I'm excited to see him win for this one because it isn't a stereotypical big, scene-stealing supporting performance.
He is the mellow yang to DiCaprio's combustible ying and controversy aside the Bruce Lee scene was a hoot. For me the person who's not doing anything new is Anthony Hopkins, a terrific actor by any measure, but he's playing a not very nuanced portrait of a arguably more complicated man. I'd like to have seen the great Willem Dafoe here for The Lighthouse, which he was phenomenal in.
Who will win: Brad Pitt. He's been reliably good for so long that he's often overlooked (I thought he deserved to win for Moneyball). To answer your question, I think this might be his best performance because it just feels like the pinnacle of what he does. I think he's great in Seven, Twelve Monkeys, the Ocean's movies and especially Burn After Reading, but yeah it's his time and his year and I'm not mad about it.
Who should win: I think Pitt, but I too have a soft spot for Pesci, who I wish was still interesting in making movies on the regular. He apparently did this as a favor for Scorsese, and thank God he did. There is something so majestic about his work in the movie and how against type he is. But yeah Pitt deserves this one.
Snub: I've already sang Dafoe's praises here. I love Craig in Knives Out, but I think of that as more of a lead performance albeit as part of an ensemble. So i'll throw a wild one out there that never ever could have happened. But Jonah Hill's completely batshit performance in The Beach Bum is one of the funniest I saw all year. It's a totally 'not for all tastes' movie and Hill's role is almost more of a cameo. But I just think he was marvelous.
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