Brian:I agree with your assessment of DeNiro's performance, and I think it will eventually get recognized for its greatness (at least in word of mouth). The end scene, alone, was one of the more powerful scenes that Scorsese has ever put to film.
Moving on to our next category, Best Director, there's once again a lack of female representation and, of course, we only have one person of color nominated. With that being said, I think this is one of the stronger categories in this year's Oscars. In a perfect world, Greta Gerwig or countless others would get the nod. I know we have this discussion every year, but I really wish that directing would expand to reflect the same number of nominees as Best Picture, since the two really go hand in hand. I get why they limit it to 5, but there's always some really glaring snubs.
Circling back to this year, I'm not really sure who I would take off to give one of the snubs a shot at the Oscar. All 5 directors told uniquely compelling stories, and in my opinion, all deserve to be there. I think there are definite snubs in this category, but I don't think they reach Lupita Nyong'o levels of WTF.
Here's the nominees:
Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”
Todd Phillips, “Joker”
Sam Mendes, “1917”
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”
Who will win: Bong Joon Ho. I think we'll have a split director/picture win this year. Parasite is a shoo-in to win Best Foreign film instead of Best Picture, similar to Roma from last year. I have yet to see Parasite, but from what I've heard and read, it's a near perfect film. It comes out on home video this Tuesday and I'm already chomping at the bit to see it.
Who should win: Honestly, every director in this category can and should win. I won't be mad if any of them take away the statue. If I had to put a name above others on this list it would be Tarantino, who could go his entire career without a directing Oscar... especially if his 10 films and done rule turns out to be true. He'll probably take home a screenplay win again, but I'm not sure there's enough movement to give him a directing Oscar as well. It would be a shame if he misses out on being recognized as one of the all-time greats. I also really liked Todd Phillips take on an iconic character, but his nomination is probably all he's going to get here... and I'm OK with it.
Snubs: I'll throw out some other names here. Olivia Wilde for Booksmart, an historically overlooked gem of a movie. Every inch of that film felt lived in and the characters had life to them in way that wasn't just "The female Superbad" marketing campaign the movie got.
My other name is Jordan Peele for Us, which was in my opinion, an improvement in storytelling and directing over Get Out. For some reason, maybe the early release date, it's been pretty much ignored.
Adam: I agree this is one of those years where several directors stepped up and did career best work while putting a uniquely personal stamp on their productions. For instance, Tarantino and Scorsese, who made essentially the culmination of their entire filmographies. So I don't see how you keep them off. Bong Joon-ho made his bonafide masterpiece -- as great as all the performances in Parasite are -- it's his film from start to finish. He belongs here.
And 1917, as a technical achievement alone, justifies Mendes being here -- although I don't think he deserves to win over the competition. Although, it would be so typical of the Oscars to gives Sam Mendes a second best director award (albeit for a superior film to his first winner) while preventing Tarantino from getting his first (for directing).
To me, the weakest link here is Todd Phillips. I think there's no denying what a creative leap his Joker was for him. Phillips had previously been best known for broad comedies like Old School and The Hangover. But I feel like what Greta Gerwig did with Little Women was just much more impressive and daring. She took one a beloved book and completely revitalized the narrative with sophisticated nonlinear storytelling that only enhancing the story's emotional impact. And this is only her second film. There can be no doubt now that she is a major filmmaker and while her snub hurts, I think she'll be impossible to ignore as her career behind the camera continues.
Who will win: This is a really tough one. I can really see any of the directors besides Phillips winning (unless Joker has a VERY good night). I worry that all the momentum seems to be shifting to Mendes, who would be a 'safe' pick here. But I honestly have no idea. I think Scorsese and his film have been unjustly diminished by Netflix bias and griping about its length.
So I think between the remaining three -- I'm gonna say Tarantino -- just because his film was very popular, it really is a career best for him and I think Academy voters will see this as potentially their last opportunity to reward him. The Oscars have famously failed to ever award (not counting career achievement trophies) some of the greatest directors of all time: Altman, Kubrick, Lumet, Hitchcock -- just to name a few. I suspect that they won't want to make that mistake again.
Who should win: I here you on Joon Ho and if he (or his film in the Best Picture category) won I would have zero issues with it, but I suspect he will be rewarded for Foreign Film as a consolation prize. I love The Departed but The Irishman is an even better film, but alas Scorsese has one and his legacy is secure. I like 1917, but I also think it's a notch below the others for me, and I've said my piece on Phillips. So for me, the sentimental choice is Tarantino. He's aged well, like a fine wine. And it's a thrill to see him maturing as a filmmaker if unfortunately at the end of his career. He'll always will be polarizing, as will his movie, but his impact on American cinema is important and undeniable.
Snubs: I totally agree about both Olivia Wilde and Jordan Peele, both suffered from early release dates and genre biases. I am sure Peele will be back someday and I hope Wilde continues down the path that she's on. I am probably the biggest Hustlers fan out there and so I will also sing the praises of Lorene Scafaria, who also wrote that film! I also thought James Gray's Ad Astra was fantastic and underrated. Lulu Wang did a fabulous job with The Farewell. Ari Aster showed he's a master with his second movie Midsommar. Then there's Rian Johnson's tour de force with Knives Out. And for the love of God the Safdie Brothers. Honestly the more I think about it the failure of Uncut Gems to get any recognition whatsoever is the best proof you need of this whole awards show is a joke.
Check out this piece on directors' favorite 2019 movies, it's a much better glimpse into what was truly great from last year.
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