The last Oscar pick-a-palooza: What's the best picture of them all?

Blade Runner 2049, snubbed

This is the last installment of my ongoing series of 2017-2018 Oscar predictions/opinion alongside Too Fat 4 Skinny Jeans blogger Brian Wezowicz. You can check out our takes on the supporting races here and here, as well as Best Actress, Actor and Director. And now for the biggest award of the night.

Brian: I agree that of all the snubs, the lack of support for Blade Runner 2049 is probably the most glaring. I think it's almost a lock for cinematography, but that's about as far as I think it will go on the big night.

And now to the final category of the night... Best Picture.

I agree with your assessment that 2017 was a great year for distinct directorial voices, and this category is a representation of that work. We've got a lot of strong contenders in what was a stellar year for movies (both indie and big budget). However, and I think we touches on this last year, I still don't think the expansion of Best Picture nominees from 5 to 10 films is working in the way it was intended to. Let's call it the Dark Knight rule.

I think the list was originally expanded over the outrage of that benchmark film getting excluded. It was a way to honor a not-so-typical Oscar movie that may have been left out in a traditional year. Since then, we've had a few movies get nominated that might have missed the cut (I was especially fond of District 9 getting nominated), but in recent years, it hasn't really felt the case. I'm looking at the exclusion of quality big budget blockbusters like The Last Jedi, or the aforementioned Blade Runner 2049. The fact that they left it at 9 nominations irked me a little. They really couldn't have nominated one more film???

I digress... let's get to the nominees: Best Picture:

Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour”
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Will Win: The Shape of Water. I think it's picked up enough pre-Oscars hardware to make it the slight front runner. I'm still not confident in my vote. I think Three Billboards or Lady Bird could make a late push.

Should Win: I'm going to go with my favorite movie of the year, Dunkirk. I think it's Nolan's most complete film, as well as the film that most inspires hope in these dark times. I'm not sure he'll win this go around. Get Out is also very much deserving of the top honor. I'm torn here as well.

Snub/Surprise: I guess my biggest surprise was them limiting the nominations to 9 instead of the full 10. As I said, there's plenty of films that could be considered snubbed, but probably none more than Good Time. I'm not sure why this film didn't see more love, but my hope is that its stature will grow as time goes by.

That's it for my picks. It's always a pleasure doing these with you. I can't believe it's already been five years! Oh, and a congrats to your beloved Eagles on beating my Pats last night. We'll get you next year!

Adam: Dude, if Blade Runner 2049 doesn't win Best Cinematography I might throw a shoe at the screen. It's beyond absurd that Roger Deakins has never won. He's done amazing work in so many films - No Country for Old Men, Sicario, Skyfall -- I could go on and on. Definitely that's one of the smaller categories I'm watching closely.

I would normally agree with you about the Best Picture expansion issue, but this year I am actually largely happy with the nominees. I have a lot of problems with Three Billboards and would love to have seen a couple different films in its slot. I haven't seen Darkest Hour, and I've been hearing that it's just ok -- so that's another slot I could see going to a worthy movie.

Still, I really liked-to-loved 7 out of the 9, which ain't bad.

In some ways this group reflects that academy finally shaking up what its concept of an Oscar movie is. The fact that Get Out made it in is something akin to a miracle since it is ostensibly a horror film, albeit a thought-provoking, satirical one. But to your point, most of these movies feel like more of the same, traditional awards-caliber movies, and I guess that may never change as long as film critics by-and-large fail to see some of the artistry that is going into big budget blockbusters these days. In other words, we need more Mad Max: Fury Road's in contention for these trophies, not simply to 'please the masses' but because those type of films can be just as compelling as a period drama.

Will win: The Shape of Water. I am basing this on the strength of its showing in the nominations, and the fact that it feels like a choice that won't anger to many people. There are films I liked better, but I think The Post peaked too late, Get Out is too outside the box and Phantom Thread is too small, ditto Call Me By Your Name. I could see Lady Bird upsetting it because it is probably more accessible, but I don't know if a movie like it can win Best Picture.

I think the fact that Dunkirk isn't viewed as a real threat is bizarre, and must be paying a price for not being more of an actor's film. So that leaves Three Billboards, which I like less and less the more I think of it and whose odd attempt to redeem its racist character feels really out of step with the times we're living in.

Should win: Your case for Dunkirk is a compelling one. I agree its one of Nolan's best works and I really think if it had a big heroic leading man performance at the center of it, it would have cleaned up. I wouldn't be mad if it won, and it's certainly one of the better movies here. But for me, it's Get Out, a movie that spoke to me and the whole country at a very unique point and time, and of all of the nominated films, feels the most urgent and satisfying.

Snubs/Surprise: I don't think we will ever see a Star Wars movie in this race. It doesn't help that while critics adored The Last Jedi, a small but vocal group of fanboys despise it. And honestly, I feel like if a Star Wars movie was gonna make it here it would have been The Force Awakens, which was much more digestible for people who aren't super read-in on Star Wars already.

But Blade Runner 2049 not being here is really infuriating to me. This was the kind of smart, deep sci-fi that critics and Oscar voter types have always supposedly been clamoring for and it's been totally sidelined, it appears, for no other reason than it didn't make as much of a fortune as its studio hoped. This was a near perfect follow-up to the 1982 masterpiece original, and it's galling to me that it wasn't a more serious contender for awards. But what can you do?

Brother, it's been great walking down memory lane with you, and I'm glad we didn't allow our diametrically opposed football fandom get in the way of our mutual love of the movies. And at the end of the day, it's not the awards that matter, it's the films, and I think the ones we loved from last year have clearly already started to show their staying power -- my number on came out last February and yours in July -- so that's saying something! 'Till next year.